Combining correlative and mechanistic niche models with human activity data to elucidate the invasive potential of a sub-Antarctic insect
[Aim]: Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are subject to substantial spatio-temporal limitations when historical occurrence records of data-poor species provide incomplete and outdated information for niche modelling. Complementary mechanistic modelling techniques can, therefore, offer a...
Published in: | Journal of Biogeography |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
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John Wiley & Sons
2020
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/237003 https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13780 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000923 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000270 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000855 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100007849 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 |
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ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/237003 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) |
op_collection_id |
ftcsic |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Chironomidae Climate change Conservation paradox Human footprint Southern Ocean Species distribution models |
spellingShingle |
Chironomidae Climate change Conservation paradox Human footprint Southern Ocean Species distribution models Pertierra, Luis R. Bartlett, Jesamine C. Duffy, Grant A. Vega, Greta C. Hughes, Kevin A. Hayward, Scott A.L. Convey, Peter Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel Aragón Carrera, Pedro Combining correlative and mechanistic niche models with human activity data to elucidate the invasive potential of a sub-Antarctic insect |
topic_facet |
Chironomidae Climate change Conservation paradox Human footprint Southern Ocean Species distribution models |
description |
[Aim]: Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are subject to substantial spatio-temporal limitations when historical occurrence records of data-poor species provide incomplete and outdated information for niche modelling. Complementary mechanistic modelling techniques can, therefore, offer a valuable contribution to underpin more physiologically informed predictions of biological invasions, the risk of which is often exacerbated by climate change. In this study we integrate physiological and human pressure data to address the uncertainties and limitations of correlative SDMs and to better understand, predict and manage biological invasions. [Location]: Western archipelagos of the Southern Ocean and martime Antarctica. [Taxon]: Eretmoptera murphyi (Chironomidae), invertebrates. [Methods]: Mahalanobis Distances were used for correlative SDM construction for a species with few records. A mechanistic SDM was built around different fitness components (larval survival and life stage progression) as a function of temperature. SDM predictions were combined with human activity levels in Antarctica to generate a site vulnerability index to the assess colonization risk of E. murphyi. Future scenarios of ecophysiological suitability were built around the warming trends in the region. [Results]: Both SDMs converge to predict high environmental suitability in the species' native and introduced ranges. However, the mechanistic model indicates a slightly larger invasive potential based on larval performance at different temperatures. Human activity levels across the Antarctic Peninsula play a key role in discerning site vulnerabilities. Niche suitability in Antarctica grows considerably under long-term climate scenarios, leading to a substantially higher invasive threat to the Antarctic ecosystems. In turn changing conditions result in growing physiological mismatches with the environment in the native range in South Georgia. [Main conclusions]: Long-term studies of invasion potential under climate benefit ... |
author2 |
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España) Natural Environment Research Council (UK) University of Birmingham British Antarctic Survey Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) Australian Research Council Australian Government |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pertierra, Luis R. Bartlett, Jesamine C. Duffy, Grant A. Vega, Greta C. Hughes, Kevin A. Hayward, Scott A.L. Convey, Peter Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel Aragón Carrera, Pedro |
author_facet |
Pertierra, Luis R. Bartlett, Jesamine C. Duffy, Grant A. Vega, Greta C. Hughes, Kevin A. Hayward, Scott A.L. Convey, Peter Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel Aragón Carrera, Pedro |
author_sort |
Pertierra, Luis R. |
title |
Combining correlative and mechanistic niche models with human activity data to elucidate the invasive potential of a sub-Antarctic insect |
title_short |
Combining correlative and mechanistic niche models with human activity data to elucidate the invasive potential of a sub-Antarctic insect |
title_full |
Combining correlative and mechanistic niche models with human activity data to elucidate the invasive potential of a sub-Antarctic insect |
title_fullStr |
Combining correlative and mechanistic niche models with human activity data to elucidate the invasive potential of a sub-Antarctic insect |
title_full_unstemmed |
Combining correlative and mechanistic niche models with human activity data to elucidate the invasive potential of a sub-Antarctic insect |
title_sort |
combining correlative and mechanistic niche models with human activity data to elucidate the invasive potential of a sub-antarctic insect |
publisher |
John Wiley & Sons |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/237003 https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13780 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000923 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000270 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000855 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100007849 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 |
geographic |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/CGL2014-56416-P info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/CGL2017-89820-P http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13780 Sí doi:10.1111/jbi.13780 issn: 1365-2699 Journal of Biogeography 47(3): 658-673 (2020) http://hdl.handle.net/10261/237003 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000923 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000855 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007849 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 |
op_rights |
none |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.1378010.13039/50110000092310.13039/50110000027010.13039/50110000085510.13039/50110000784910.13039/501100003329 |
container_title |
Journal of Biogeography |
container_volume |
47 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
658 |
op_container_end_page |
673 |
_version_ |
1790603562388029440 |
spelling |
ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/237003 2024-02-11T09:56:29+01:00 Combining correlative and mechanistic niche models with human activity data to elucidate the invasive potential of a sub-Antarctic insect Pertierra, Luis R. Bartlett, Jesamine C. Duffy, Grant A. Vega, Greta C. Hughes, Kevin A. Hayward, Scott A.L. Convey, Peter Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel Aragón Carrera, Pedro Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España) Natural Environment Research Council (UK) University of Birmingham British Antarctic Survey Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) Australian Research Council Australian Government 2020-03 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/237003 https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13780 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000923 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000270 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000855 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100007849 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 unknown John Wiley & Sons #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/CGL2014-56416-P info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/CGL2017-89820-P http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13780 Sí doi:10.1111/jbi.13780 issn: 1365-2699 Journal of Biogeography 47(3): 658-673 (2020) http://hdl.handle.net/10261/237003 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000923 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000855 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007849 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 none Chironomidae Climate change Conservation paradox Human footprint Southern Ocean Species distribution models artículo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 2020 ftcsic https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.1378010.13039/50110000092310.13039/50110000027010.13039/50110000085510.13039/50110000784910.13039/501100003329 2024-01-16T11:06:34Z [Aim]: Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are subject to substantial spatio-temporal limitations when historical occurrence records of data-poor species provide incomplete and outdated information for niche modelling. Complementary mechanistic modelling techniques can, therefore, offer a valuable contribution to underpin more physiologically informed predictions of biological invasions, the risk of which is often exacerbated by climate change. In this study we integrate physiological and human pressure data to address the uncertainties and limitations of correlative SDMs and to better understand, predict and manage biological invasions. [Location]: Western archipelagos of the Southern Ocean and martime Antarctica. [Taxon]: Eretmoptera murphyi (Chironomidae), invertebrates. [Methods]: Mahalanobis Distances were used for correlative SDM construction for a species with few records. A mechanistic SDM was built around different fitness components (larval survival and life stage progression) as a function of temperature. SDM predictions were combined with human activity levels in Antarctica to generate a site vulnerability index to the assess colonization risk of E. murphyi. Future scenarios of ecophysiological suitability were built around the warming trends in the region. [Results]: Both SDMs converge to predict high environmental suitability in the species' native and introduced ranges. However, the mechanistic model indicates a slightly larger invasive potential based on larval performance at different temperatures. Human activity levels across the Antarctic Peninsula play a key role in discerning site vulnerabilities. Niche suitability in Antarctica grows considerably under long-term climate scenarios, leading to a substantially higher invasive threat to the Antarctic ecosystems. In turn changing conditions result in growing physiological mismatches with the environment in the native range in South Georgia. [Main conclusions]: Long-term studies of invasion potential under climate benefit ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Southern Ocean Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Southern Ocean The Antarctic Journal of Biogeography 47 3 658 673 |