A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major atmospheric mode that controls winter European climate variability because its strength and phase determine regional temperature, precipitation and storm tracks. The NAO spatial structure and associated climatic impacts over Europe are not stationary...
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ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/220973 2024-02-11T10:06:13+01:00 A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula Hernández, Armand Sánchez-López, Guiomar Pla-Rabes, S. Comas-Bru, Laia Parnell, Andrew Cahill, Niamh Geyer, Adelina Trigo, Ricardo M. Giralt, Santiago Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España) Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (España) Science Foundation Ireland Giralt, Santiago Geyer, Adelina Hernández, Armand 2020-09 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/220973 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-71372-5 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003339 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001602 en eng Nature Publishing Group #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/CGL2010-15767/BTE info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/CGL2013-40608-R info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/CGL2016-75281-C2-1-R Publisher's version https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-71372-5 Sí Scientific Reports, 10(1): Article number: 14961 (2020) http://hdl.handle.net/10261/220973 doi:10.1038/s41598-020-71372-5 2045-2322 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003339 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001602 32917916 open Cycle Model Precipitation Impact Circulation Solar Paleoclimate Reconstruction Climate Variability East Atlantic North-Atlantic Oscillation PolarCSIC artículo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 2020 ftcsic https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-71372-510.13039/50110000332910.13039/50110000333910.13039/501100001602 2024-01-16T10:58:27Z The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major atmospheric mode that controls winter European climate variability because its strength and phase determine regional temperature, precipitation and storm tracks. The NAO spatial structure and associated climatic impacts over Europe are not stationary making it crucial to understanding its past evolution in order to improve the predictability of future scenarios. In this regard, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of studies aimed at reconstructing past NAO variability, but the information related to decadal-scale NAO evolution beyond the last millennium is scarce and inconclusive. We present a new 2,000-year multi-annual, proxy-based reconstruction of local NAO impact, with associated uncertainties, obtained by a Bayesian approach. This new local NAO reconstruction is obtained from a mountain lacustrine sedimentary archive of the Iberian Peninsula. This geographical area is not included in previous NAO reconstructions despite being a widely used region for instrumental-based NAO measurements. We assess the main external forcings (i.e., volcanic eruptions and solar activity) on NAO variability which, on a decadal scale, show that a low number of sunspots correlate to low NAO values. By comparison with other previously published NAO reconstructions in our analyses we can test the stationarity of the solar influence on the NAO signal across a latitudinal gradient based on the position of the employed archives for each NAO reconstruction. Inconclusive results on the volcanic forcing on NAO variability over decadal time-scales indicates the need for further studies. Moreover, we highlight the potential role of other North Atlantic modes of variability (i.e., East Atlantic pattern) on the non-stationary behaviour of the NAO throughout the Common Era, likely via solar forcing. This work was financed by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the PaleoNAO (CGL2010-15767/BTE), RapidNAO (CGL2013-40608-R), and PaleoModes ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) Scientific Reports 10 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) |
op_collection_id |
ftcsic |
language |
English |
topic |
Cycle Model Precipitation Impact Circulation Solar Paleoclimate Reconstruction Climate Variability East Atlantic North-Atlantic Oscillation PolarCSIC |
spellingShingle |
Cycle Model Precipitation Impact Circulation Solar Paleoclimate Reconstruction Climate Variability East Atlantic North-Atlantic Oscillation PolarCSIC Hernández, Armand Sánchez-López, Guiomar Pla-Rabes, S. Comas-Bru, Laia Parnell, Andrew Cahill, Niamh Geyer, Adelina Trigo, Ricardo M. Giralt, Santiago A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula |
topic_facet |
Cycle Model Precipitation Impact Circulation Solar Paleoclimate Reconstruction Climate Variability East Atlantic North-Atlantic Oscillation PolarCSIC |
description |
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major atmospheric mode that controls winter European climate variability because its strength and phase determine regional temperature, precipitation and storm tracks. The NAO spatial structure and associated climatic impacts over Europe are not stationary making it crucial to understanding its past evolution in order to improve the predictability of future scenarios. In this regard, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of studies aimed at reconstructing past NAO variability, but the information related to decadal-scale NAO evolution beyond the last millennium is scarce and inconclusive. We present a new 2,000-year multi-annual, proxy-based reconstruction of local NAO impact, with associated uncertainties, obtained by a Bayesian approach. This new local NAO reconstruction is obtained from a mountain lacustrine sedimentary archive of the Iberian Peninsula. This geographical area is not included in previous NAO reconstructions despite being a widely used region for instrumental-based NAO measurements. We assess the main external forcings (i.e., volcanic eruptions and solar activity) on NAO variability which, on a decadal scale, show that a low number of sunspots correlate to low NAO values. By comparison with other previously published NAO reconstructions in our analyses we can test the stationarity of the solar influence on the NAO signal across a latitudinal gradient based on the position of the employed archives for each NAO reconstruction. Inconclusive results on the volcanic forcing on NAO variability over decadal time-scales indicates the need for further studies. Moreover, we highlight the potential role of other North Atlantic modes of variability (i.e., East Atlantic pattern) on the non-stationary behaviour of the NAO throughout the Common Era, likely via solar forcing. This work was financed by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the PaleoNAO (CGL2010-15767/BTE), RapidNAO (CGL2013-40608-R), and PaleoModes ... |
author2 |
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España) Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (España) Science Foundation Ireland Giralt, Santiago Geyer, Adelina Hernández, Armand |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hernández, Armand Sánchez-López, Guiomar Pla-Rabes, S. Comas-Bru, Laia Parnell, Andrew Cahill, Niamh Geyer, Adelina Trigo, Ricardo M. Giralt, Santiago |
author_facet |
Hernández, Armand Sánchez-López, Guiomar Pla-Rabes, S. Comas-Bru, Laia Parnell, Andrew Cahill, Niamh Geyer, Adelina Trigo, Ricardo M. Giralt, Santiago |
author_sort |
Hernández, Armand |
title |
A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula |
title_short |
A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula |
title_full |
A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula |
title_fullStr |
A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula |
title_full_unstemmed |
A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula |
title_sort |
2,000-year bayesian nao reconstruction from the iberian peninsula |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/220973 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-71372-5 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003339 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001602 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/CGL2010-15767/BTE info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/CGL2013-40608-R info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/CGL2016-75281-C2-1-R Publisher's version https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-71372-5 Sí Scientific Reports, 10(1): Article number: 14961 (2020) http://hdl.handle.net/10261/220973 doi:10.1038/s41598-020-71372-5 2045-2322 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003339 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001602 32917916 |
op_rights |
open |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-71372-510.13039/50110000332910.13039/50110000333910.13039/501100001602 |
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Scientific Reports |
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10 |
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