Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by a...
Published in: | Nature |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Other Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Springer Nature
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/187078 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001664 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 |
id |
ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/187078 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/187078 2024-02-11T10:06:29+01:00 Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation Caesar, L. Rahmstorf, S. Robinson, Alexander Feulner, G. Saba, V. European Commission Leibniz Association 2018-04-11 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/187078 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001664 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 en eng Springer Nature #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/703251 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 Sí Nature 556: 191–196 (2018) 0028-0836 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/187078 doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 1476-4687 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001664 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 none artículo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 2018 ftcsic https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-510.13039/50110000166410.13039/501100000780 2024-01-16T10:41:52Z The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region—and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of record-low AMOC values in recent years. A.R. was funded by the Marie Curie Horizon2020 project CONCLIMA (grant number 703251). PIK is a Member of the Leibniz Association. Peer reviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) Pik ENVELOPE(67.200,67.200,-70.783,-70.783) Nature 556 7700 191 196 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) |
op_collection_id |
ftcsic |
language |
English |
description |
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region—and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of record-low AMOC values in recent years. A.R. was funded by the Marie Curie Horizon2020 project CONCLIMA (grant number 703251). PIK is a Member of the Leibniz Association. Peer reviewed |
author2 |
European Commission Leibniz Association |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Caesar, L. Rahmstorf, S. Robinson, Alexander Feulner, G. Saba, V. |
spellingShingle |
Caesar, L. Rahmstorf, S. Robinson, Alexander Feulner, G. Saba, V. Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation |
author_facet |
Caesar, L. Rahmstorf, S. Robinson, Alexander Feulner, G. Saba, V. |
author_sort |
Caesar, L. |
title |
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation |
title_short |
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation |
title_full |
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation |
title_fullStr |
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation |
title_sort |
observed fingerprint of a weakening atlantic ocean overturning circulation |
publisher |
Springer Nature |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/187078 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001664 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(67.200,67.200,-70.783,-70.783) |
geographic |
Pik |
geographic_facet |
Pik |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/703251 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 Sí Nature 556: 191–196 (2018) 0028-0836 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/187078 doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 1476-4687 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001664 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 |
op_rights |
none |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-510.13039/50110000166410.13039/501100000780 |
container_title |
Nature |
container_volume |
556 |
container_issue |
7700 |
container_start_page |
191 |
op_container_end_page |
196 |
_version_ |
1790604250318897152 |