No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI

Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future chan...

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Published in:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Main Authors: Ayarzagüena, Blanca, Polvani, Lorenzo M., Langematz, Ulrike, Akiyoshi, Hideharu, Bekki, Slimane, Butchart, Neal, Dameris, Martin, Deushi, Makoto, Hardiman, Steven C., Jöckel, Patrick, Klekociuk, Andrew, Marchand, Marion, Michou, Martine, Morgenstern, Olaf, O'Connor, Fiona M., Oman, Luke D., Plummer, David A., Revell, Laura, Rozanov, Eugene, Saint-Martin, David, Scinocca, John, Stenke, Andrea, Stone, Kane, Yamashita, Yousuke, Yoshida, Kohei, Zeng, Guang
Other Authors: European Commission, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, German Research Foundation, National Science Foundation (US), Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment (New Zealand), Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Deep South National Science Challenge (New Zealand), German Climate Computing Center, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Ministry of Environment (Japan), Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (Japan)
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: European Geosciences Union 2018
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/185753
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004629
https://doi.org/10.13039/100012139
https://doi.org/10.13039/100000001
https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780
https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002911
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description Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century. Blanca Ayarzagüena was funded by the European Project 603557-STRATOCLIM under the FP7-ENV.2013.6.1-2 programme and “Ayudas para la contratación de personal postdoctoral en formación en docencia e investigación en departamentos de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid”. Blanca Ayarzagüena and Ulrike Langematz wish to acknowledge the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) within the research programme SHARP under the grant LA 1025/15-1. Lorenzo M. Polvani is grateful for the continued support of the US National Science Foundation. The work of Neal Butchart, Steven C. Hardiman, and Fiona M. O'Connor was supported by the Joint BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). Neal Butchart and Steven C. Hardiman were supported by ...
author2 European Commission
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
German Research Foundation
National Science Foundation (US)
Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment (New Zealand)
Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust
Deep South National Science Challenge (New Zealand)
German Climate Computing Center
Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany)
Ministry of Environment (Japan)
Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (Japan)
Ayarzagüena, Blanca
Polvani, Lorenzo M.
Akiyoshi, Hideharu
Bekki, Slimane
Jöckel, Patrick
Morgenstern, Olaf
Revell, Laura
Saint-Martin, David
Stenke, Andrea
Stone, Kane
Yamashita, Yousuke
Yoshida, Kohei
Zeng, Guang
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Ayarzagüena, Blanca
Polvani, Lorenzo M.
Langematz, Ulrike
Akiyoshi, Hideharu
Bekki, Slimane
Butchart, Neal
Dameris, Martin
Deushi, Makoto
Hardiman, Steven C.
Jöckel, Patrick
Klekociuk, Andrew
Marchand, Marion
Michou, Martine
Morgenstern, Olaf
O'Connor, Fiona M.
Oman, Luke D.
Plummer, David A.
Revell, Laura
Rozanov, Eugene
Saint-Martin, David
Scinocca, John
Stenke, Andrea
Stone, Kane
Yamashita, Yousuke
Yoshida, Kohei
Zeng, Guang
spellingShingle Ayarzagüena, Blanca
Polvani, Lorenzo M.
Langematz, Ulrike
Akiyoshi, Hideharu
Bekki, Slimane
Butchart, Neal
Dameris, Martin
Deushi, Makoto
Hardiman, Steven C.
Jöckel, Patrick
Klekociuk, Andrew
Marchand, Marion
Michou, Martine
Morgenstern, Olaf
O'Connor, Fiona M.
Oman, Luke D.
Plummer, David A.
Revell, Laura
Rozanov, Eugene
Saint-Martin, David
Scinocca, John
Stenke, Andrea
Stone, Kane
Yamashita, Yousuke
Yoshida, Kohei
Zeng, Guang
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
author_facet Ayarzagüena, Blanca
Polvani, Lorenzo M.
Langematz, Ulrike
Akiyoshi, Hideharu
Bekki, Slimane
Butchart, Neal
Dameris, Martin
Deushi, Makoto
Hardiman, Steven C.
Jöckel, Patrick
Klekociuk, Andrew
Marchand, Marion
Michou, Martine
Morgenstern, Olaf
O'Connor, Fiona M.
Oman, Luke D.
Plummer, David A.
Revell, Laura
Rozanov, Eugene
Saint-Martin, David
Scinocca, John
Stenke, Andrea
Stone, Kane
Yamashita, Yousuke
Yoshida, Kohei
Zeng, Guang
author_sort Ayarzagüena, Blanca
title No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
title_short No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
title_full No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
title_fullStr No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
title_full_unstemmed No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
title_sort no robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from ccmi
publisher European Geosciences Union
publishDate 2018
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/185753
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004629
https://doi.org/10.13039/100012139
https://doi.org/10.13039/100000001
https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780
https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002911
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info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603557
Publisher's version
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 18(15): 11277-11287 (2018)
1680-7316
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/185753
doi:10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
1680-7324
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004629
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100012139
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002911
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spelling ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/185753 2024-02-11T10:01:40+01:00 No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI Ayarzagüena, Blanca Polvani, Lorenzo M. Langematz, Ulrike Akiyoshi, Hideharu Bekki, Slimane Butchart, Neal Dameris, Martin Deushi, Makoto Hardiman, Steven C. Jöckel, Patrick Klekociuk, Andrew Marchand, Marion Michou, Martine Morgenstern, Olaf O'Connor, Fiona M. Oman, Luke D. Plummer, David A. Revell, Laura Rozanov, Eugene Saint-Martin, David Scinocca, John Stenke, Andrea Stone, Kane Yamashita, Yousuke Yoshida, Kohei Zeng, Guang European Commission Universidad Complutense de Madrid German Research Foundation National Science Foundation (US) Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment (New Zealand) Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Deep South National Science Challenge (New Zealand) German Climate Computing Center Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany) Ministry of Environment (Japan) Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (Japan) Ayarzagüena, Blanca Polvani, Lorenzo M. Akiyoshi, Hideharu Bekki, Slimane Jöckel, Patrick Morgenstern, Olaf Revell, Laura Saint-Martin, David Stenke, Andrea Stone, Kane Yamashita, Yousuke Yoshida, Kohei Zeng, Guang 2018-08-13 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/185753 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001659 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004629 https://doi.org/10.13039/100012139 https://doi.org/10.13039/100000001 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002347 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002911 en eng European Geosciences Union #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603557 Publisher's version https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018 Sí Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 18(15): 11277-11287 (2018) 1680-7316 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/185753 doi:10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018 1680-7324 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004629 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100012139 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002911 open artículo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 2018 ftcsic https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-201810.13039/50110000165910.13039/50110000462910.13039/10001213910.13039/10000000110.13039/50110000078010.13039/50110000234710.13039/501100002911 2024-01-16T10:41:12Z Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century. Blanca Ayarzagüena was funded by the European Project 603557-STRATOCLIM under the FP7-ENV.2013.6.1-2 programme and “Ayudas para la contratación de personal postdoctoral en formación en docencia e investigación en departamentos de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid”. Blanca Ayarzagüena and Ulrike Langematz wish to acknowledge the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) within the research programme SHARP under the grant LA 1025/15-1. Lorenzo M. Polvani is grateful for the continued support of the US National Science Foundation. The work of Neal Butchart, Steven C. Hardiman, and Fiona M. O'Connor was supported by the Joint BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). Neal Butchart and Steven C. Hardiman were supported by ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic polar night Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) Arctic O'Connor ENVELOPE(-58.383,-58.383,-62.067,-62.067) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 18 15 11277 11287