Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the Next Glacial Cycle
2014 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, 15-19 december 2014, San Francisco A simple relaxation-type model (García-Olivares and Herrero, 2013) based on an optimization of Paillard and Parrenin (2004), has been used to predict the future evolution of atmospheric CO2, global ice volume and Antarc...
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ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/115262 2024-02-11T09:57:29+01:00 Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the Next Glacial Cycle Herrero, Carmen García-Olivares, Antonio Pelegrí, Josep Lluís 2014-12-19 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/115262 unknown American Geophysical Union https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm14/meetingapp.cgi#Paper/5857 2014 AGU Fall Meeting (2014) http://hdl.handle.net/10261/115262 none póster de congreso http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6670 2014 ftcsic 2024-01-16T10:07:21Z 2014 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, 15-19 december 2014, San Francisco A simple relaxation-type model (García-Olivares and Herrero, 2013) based on an optimization of Paillard and Parrenin (2004), has been used to predict the future evolution of atmospheric CO2, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr, with and without the atmospheric CO2 perturbation caused by anthropogenic emissions. The initial atmospheric CO2 condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources, with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. This analysis sets a peak of emissions on year 2037 AD and a maximum CO2 concentration of 519 ppmv in 2300 AD, leading to 20 kyr of abnormally high greenhouse effect. Weathering compensation and emission of methane from clathrates have also been considered as they have relevant effects on the dynamics of the system after the perturbation. The anthropogenic CO2 pulse clearly perturbs the natural cycle for all model variables during the forthcoming 300 kyr. The present interglacial will be lengthen by 25 kyr, as the anthropogenic perturbation will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf and a consequent perturbation of the deep ocean stratification, so the relative maximum of boreal insolation 65 kyr AP will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation. The next glacial maximum will take place about 105 kyr AP and the following interglacial will be delayed forward in time by 44 kyr in relation to unperturbed conditions. This study endorses the idea that relaxation type coupled models, despite their simple structure, may retain the principal Earth's climatic interactions, being capable of accounting for the natural evolution of an externally imposed ... Still Image Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) Antarctic Olivares ENVELOPE(-56.983,-56.983,-63.400,-63.400) The Antarctic |
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Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) |
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2014 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, 15-19 december 2014, San Francisco A simple relaxation-type model (García-Olivares and Herrero, 2013) based on an optimization of Paillard and Parrenin (2004), has been used to predict the future evolution of atmospheric CO2, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr, with and without the atmospheric CO2 perturbation caused by anthropogenic emissions. The initial atmospheric CO2 condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources, with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. This analysis sets a peak of emissions on year 2037 AD and a maximum CO2 concentration of 519 ppmv in 2300 AD, leading to 20 kyr of abnormally high greenhouse effect. Weathering compensation and emission of methane from clathrates have also been considered as they have relevant effects on the dynamics of the system after the perturbation. The anthropogenic CO2 pulse clearly perturbs the natural cycle for all model variables during the forthcoming 300 kyr. The present interglacial will be lengthen by 25 kyr, as the anthropogenic perturbation will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf and a consequent perturbation of the deep ocean stratification, so the relative maximum of boreal insolation 65 kyr AP will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation. The next glacial maximum will take place about 105 kyr AP and the following interglacial will be delayed forward in time by 44 kyr in relation to unperturbed conditions. This study endorses the idea that relaxation type coupled models, despite their simple structure, may retain the principal Earth's climatic interactions, being capable of accounting for the natural evolution of an externally imposed ... |
format |
Still Image |
author |
Herrero, Carmen García-Olivares, Antonio Pelegrí, Josep Lluís |
spellingShingle |
Herrero, Carmen García-Olivares, Antonio Pelegrí, Josep Lluís Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the Next Glacial Cycle |
author_facet |
Herrero, Carmen García-Olivares, Antonio Pelegrí, Josep Lluís |
author_sort |
Herrero, Carmen |
title |
Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the Next Glacial Cycle |
title_short |
Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the Next Glacial Cycle |
title_full |
Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the Next Glacial Cycle |
title_fullStr |
Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the Next Glacial Cycle |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the Next Glacial Cycle |
title_sort |
impact of anthropogenic co2 on the next glacial cycle |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/115262 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-56.983,-56.983,-63.400,-63.400) |
geographic |
Antarctic Olivares The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Olivares The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm14/meetingapp.cgi#Paper/5857 2014 AGU Fall Meeting (2014) http://hdl.handle.net/10261/115262 |
op_rights |
none |
_version_ |
1790609776769499136 |