Forecasting the severity of the Newfoundland iceberg season using a control systems model
The iceberg hazard for the Grand Banks area to the east of Newfoundland varies dramatically from one year to the next. In some years no icebergs penetrate south of 48°N, while in others well over 1000 icebergs enter the main shipping lanes between Europe and NE North America. Advance knowledge of th...
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Taylor and Francis
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ftcranfield:oai:dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk:1826/14459 2023-05-15T17:20:07+02:00 Forecasting the severity of the Newfoundland iceberg season using a control systems model Bigg, Grant R. Zhao, Yifan Hanna, Edward 2019-06-20 https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632128 https://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/14459 en eng Taylor and Francis Bigg GR, Zhao Y, Hanna E. (2019) Forecasting the severity of the Newfoundland iceberg season using a control systems model. Journal of Operational Oceanography, Volume 14, Issue 1, 2021, pp. 24-36 1755-876X https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632128 https://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/14459 Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ CC-BY-NC Iceberg hazard Newfoundland control systems model prediction Labrador Current windowed error reduction ratio 2019 ftcranfield https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632128 2022-11-17T23:38:44Z The iceberg hazard for the Grand Banks area to the east of Newfoundland varies dramatically from one year to the next. In some years no icebergs penetrate south of 48°N, while in others well over 1000 icebergs enter the main shipping lanes between Europe and NE North America. Advance knowledge of this seasonal hazard would have major implications for ship routing, as well as the resources required for maintaining an effective ice hazard service. Here, a Windowed Error Reduction Ratio control system identification approach is used to forecast the severity of the 2018 iceberg season off Newfoundland, in terms of the predicted number of icebergs crossing 48°N, as well as to hindcast iceberg numbers for 2017. The best estimates are for 766 ± 297 icebergs crossing 48°N before the end of September 2017 and 685 ± 207 for 2018. These are both above the recent observed average of 592 icebergs for that date, and substantially so for 2017. Given the bimodal nature of the annual iceberg number, this means that our predictions for both 2017 and 2018 are for a high iceberg season, with a 71% level of confidence. However, it is most likely that the 2018 iceberg numbers will be somewhat less than 1000, while our higher hindcast for 2017 is consistent with the observed level of 1008. Our verification analysis, covering the 20-year period up to 2016, shows our model's correspondence to the high or low nature of the 48°N iceberg numbers is statistically robust to the 0.05% level, with a skill level of 80%. Other/Unknown Material Newfoundland Cranfield University: Collection of E-Research - CERES Lanes ENVELOPE(18.933,18.933,69.617,69.617) Newfoundland Journal of Operational Oceanography 14 1 24 36 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Cranfield University: Collection of E-Research - CERES |
op_collection_id |
ftcranfield |
language |
English |
topic |
Iceberg hazard Newfoundland control systems model prediction Labrador Current windowed error reduction ratio |
spellingShingle |
Iceberg hazard Newfoundland control systems model prediction Labrador Current windowed error reduction ratio Bigg, Grant R. Zhao, Yifan Hanna, Edward Forecasting the severity of the Newfoundland iceberg season using a control systems model |
topic_facet |
Iceberg hazard Newfoundland control systems model prediction Labrador Current windowed error reduction ratio |
description |
The iceberg hazard for the Grand Banks area to the east of Newfoundland varies dramatically from one year to the next. In some years no icebergs penetrate south of 48°N, while in others well over 1000 icebergs enter the main shipping lanes between Europe and NE North America. Advance knowledge of this seasonal hazard would have major implications for ship routing, as well as the resources required for maintaining an effective ice hazard service. Here, a Windowed Error Reduction Ratio control system identification approach is used to forecast the severity of the 2018 iceberg season off Newfoundland, in terms of the predicted number of icebergs crossing 48°N, as well as to hindcast iceberg numbers for 2017. The best estimates are for 766 ± 297 icebergs crossing 48°N before the end of September 2017 and 685 ± 207 for 2018. These are both above the recent observed average of 592 icebergs for that date, and substantially so for 2017. Given the bimodal nature of the annual iceberg number, this means that our predictions for both 2017 and 2018 are for a high iceberg season, with a 71% level of confidence. However, it is most likely that the 2018 iceberg numbers will be somewhat less than 1000, while our higher hindcast for 2017 is consistent with the observed level of 1008. Our verification analysis, covering the 20-year period up to 2016, shows our model's correspondence to the high or low nature of the 48°N iceberg numbers is statistically robust to the 0.05% level, with a skill level of 80%. |
author |
Bigg, Grant R. Zhao, Yifan Hanna, Edward |
author_facet |
Bigg, Grant R. Zhao, Yifan Hanna, Edward |
author_sort |
Bigg, Grant R. |
title |
Forecasting the severity of the Newfoundland iceberg season using a control systems model |
title_short |
Forecasting the severity of the Newfoundland iceberg season using a control systems model |
title_full |
Forecasting the severity of the Newfoundland iceberg season using a control systems model |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting the severity of the Newfoundland iceberg season using a control systems model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting the severity of the Newfoundland iceberg season using a control systems model |
title_sort |
forecasting the severity of the newfoundland iceberg season using a control systems model |
publisher |
Taylor and Francis |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632128 https://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/14459 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(18.933,18.933,69.617,69.617) |
geographic |
Lanes Newfoundland |
geographic_facet |
Lanes Newfoundland |
genre |
Newfoundland |
genre_facet |
Newfoundland |
op_relation |
Bigg GR, Zhao Y, Hanna E. (2019) Forecasting the severity of the Newfoundland iceberg season using a control systems model. Journal of Operational Oceanography, Volume 14, Issue 1, 2021, pp. 24-36 1755-876X https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632128 https://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/14459 |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632128 |
container_title |
Journal of Operational Oceanography |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
24 |
op_container_end_page |
36 |
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1766097526172155904 |