Simulating hydrological impacts under climate change: implications from methodological differences of a pan European assessment
The simulation of hydrological impacts in a changing climate remains one of the main challenges of the earth system sciences. Impact assessments can be, in many cases, laborious processes leading to inevitable methodological compromises that drastically affect the robustness of the conclusions. In t...
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ftcranfield:oai:dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk:1826/13509 2023-05-15T18:18:40+02:00 Simulating hydrological impacts under climate change: implications from methodological differences of a pan European assessment Koutroulis, Aristeidis G. Papadimitriou, Lamprini Grillakis, Manolis G. Tsanis, Ioannis K. Wyser, Klaus Caesar, John Betts, Richard A 2018-09-26 https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/13509 en eng MDPI Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, Lamprini V. Papadimitriou, et al., Simulating hydrological impacts under climate change: implications from methodological differences of a pan European assessment. Water, 2018, Volume 10, Issue 1), Article number 1331 2073-4441 https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/13509 Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY climate change hydrology uncertainty Europe impacts water Article 2018 ftcranfield https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 2022-01-09T06:50:34Z The simulation of hydrological impacts in a changing climate remains one of the main challenges of the earth system sciences. Impact assessments can be, in many cases, laborious processes leading to inevitable methodological compromises that drastically affect the robustness of the conclusions. In this study we examine the implications of different CMIP5-based regional and global climate model ensembles for projections of the hydrological impacts of climate change. We compare results from three different assessments of hydrological impacts under high-end climate change (RCP8.5) across Europe, and we focus on how methodological differences affect the projections. We assess, as systematically as possible, the differences in runoff projections as simulated by a land surface model driven by three different sets of climate projections over the European continent at global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, according to the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. We find that these methodological differences lead to considerably different outputs for a number of indicators used to express different aspects of runoff. We further use a number of new global climate model experiments, with an emphasis on high resolution, to test the assumption that many of the uncertainties in regional climate and hydrological changes are driven predominantly by the prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and we find that results are more sensitive to the choice of the atmosphere model compared to the driving SSTs. Finally, we combine all sources of information to identify robust patterns of hydrological changes across the European continent. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Cranfield University: Collection of E-Research - CERES Water 10 10 1331 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Cranfield University: Collection of E-Research - CERES |
op_collection_id |
ftcranfield |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change hydrology uncertainty Europe impacts water |
spellingShingle |
climate change hydrology uncertainty Europe impacts water Koutroulis, Aristeidis G. Papadimitriou, Lamprini Grillakis, Manolis G. Tsanis, Ioannis K. Wyser, Klaus Caesar, John Betts, Richard A Simulating hydrological impacts under climate change: implications from methodological differences of a pan European assessment |
topic_facet |
climate change hydrology uncertainty Europe impacts water |
description |
The simulation of hydrological impacts in a changing climate remains one of the main challenges of the earth system sciences. Impact assessments can be, in many cases, laborious processes leading to inevitable methodological compromises that drastically affect the robustness of the conclusions. In this study we examine the implications of different CMIP5-based regional and global climate model ensembles for projections of the hydrological impacts of climate change. We compare results from three different assessments of hydrological impacts under high-end climate change (RCP8.5) across Europe, and we focus on how methodological differences affect the projections. We assess, as systematically as possible, the differences in runoff projections as simulated by a land surface model driven by three different sets of climate projections over the European continent at global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, according to the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. We find that these methodological differences lead to considerably different outputs for a number of indicators used to express different aspects of runoff. We further use a number of new global climate model experiments, with an emphasis on high resolution, to test the assumption that many of the uncertainties in regional climate and hydrological changes are driven predominantly by the prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and we find that results are more sensitive to the choice of the atmosphere model compared to the driving SSTs. Finally, we combine all sources of information to identify robust patterns of hydrological changes across the European continent. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Koutroulis, Aristeidis G. Papadimitriou, Lamprini Grillakis, Manolis G. Tsanis, Ioannis K. Wyser, Klaus Caesar, John Betts, Richard A |
author_facet |
Koutroulis, Aristeidis G. Papadimitriou, Lamprini Grillakis, Manolis G. Tsanis, Ioannis K. Wyser, Klaus Caesar, John Betts, Richard A |
author_sort |
Koutroulis, Aristeidis G. |
title |
Simulating hydrological impacts under climate change: implications from methodological differences of a pan European assessment |
title_short |
Simulating hydrological impacts under climate change: implications from methodological differences of a pan European assessment |
title_full |
Simulating hydrological impacts under climate change: implications from methodological differences of a pan European assessment |
title_fullStr |
Simulating hydrological impacts under climate change: implications from methodological differences of a pan European assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulating hydrological impacts under climate change: implications from methodological differences of a pan European assessment |
title_sort |
simulating hydrological impacts under climate change: implications from methodological differences of a pan european assessment |
publisher |
MDPI |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/13509 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, Lamprini V. Papadimitriou, et al., Simulating hydrological impacts under climate change: implications from methodological differences of a pan European assessment. Water, 2018, Volume 10, Issue 1), Article number 1331 2073-4441 https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/13509 |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 |
container_title |
Water |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
1331 |
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1766195310876426240 |