Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century
Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease in pine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events to climatic variables in 1997–2010 showed that the disease depended most on precipitation of two successive years. Temperature conditions were...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:we47780 2023-05-15T17:57:41+02:00 Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century Tchebakova, N. M. Kuzmina, N. A. Parfenova, E. I. Senashova, V. A. Kuzmin, S. R. 2018-01-15 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/we-16-37-2016 https://we.copernicus.org/articles/16/37/2016/ eng eng doi:10.5194/we-16-37-2016 https://we.copernicus.org/articles/16/37/2016/ eISSN: 1399-1183 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/we-16-37-2016 2020-07-20T16:24:17Z Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease in pine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events to climatic variables in 1997–2010 showed that the disease depended most on precipitation of two successive years. Temperature conditions were important to trigger the disease in wetter years. We used our regional bioclimatic envelope model and IPCC scenarios to model the needle cast distribution and its outbreaks in the 21st century. In a warming climate, the needle cast range would shift northwards. By 2020, needle cast outbreaks would already have damaged the largest forest areas. But outbreak areas would decrease by 2080 because the ranges of modeled pathogen and Scots pine, the disease host, would separate: the host tree progression would be halted by the slower permafrost retreat, which would in turn halt the potential pathogen progression. Text permafrost Siberia Copernicus Publications: E-Journals The Needle ENVELOPE(-64.047,-64.047,63.267,63.267) Web Ecology 16 1 37 39 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease in pine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events to climatic variables in 1997–2010 showed that the disease depended most on precipitation of two successive years. Temperature conditions were important to trigger the disease in wetter years. We used our regional bioclimatic envelope model and IPCC scenarios to model the needle cast distribution and its outbreaks in the 21st century. In a warming climate, the needle cast range would shift northwards. By 2020, needle cast outbreaks would already have damaged the largest forest areas. But outbreak areas would decrease by 2080 because the ranges of modeled pathogen and Scots pine, the disease host, would separate: the host tree progression would be halted by the slower permafrost retreat, which would in turn halt the potential pathogen progression. |
format |
Text |
author |
Tchebakova, N. M. Kuzmina, N. A. Parfenova, E. I. Senashova, V. A. Kuzmin, S. R. |
spellingShingle |
Tchebakova, N. M. Kuzmina, N. A. Parfenova, E. I. Senashova, V. A. Kuzmin, S. R. Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century |
author_facet |
Tchebakova, N. M. Kuzmina, N. A. Parfenova, E. I. Senashova, V. A. Kuzmin, S. R. |
author_sort |
Tchebakova, N. M. |
title |
Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century |
title_short |
Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century |
title_full |
Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century |
title_fullStr |
Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century |
title_sort |
potential climate-induced distributions of lophodermium needle cast across central siberia in the 21 century |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/we-16-37-2016 https://we.copernicus.org/articles/16/37/2016/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-64.047,-64.047,63.267,63.267) |
geographic |
The Needle |
geographic_facet |
The Needle |
genre |
permafrost Siberia |
genre_facet |
permafrost Siberia |
op_source |
eISSN: 1399-1183 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/we-16-37-2016 https://we.copernicus.org/articles/16/37/2016/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/we-16-37-2016 |
container_title |
Web Ecology |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
37 |
op_container_end_page |
39 |
_version_ |
1766166165879521280 |