Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LENS. Part I: cyclone intensity, PV anomalies and horizontal wind speed
Strong low-level winds associated with extratropical cyclones can cause substantial impacts on society. The wind intensity and the spatial distribution of wind maxima may change in a warming climate; however, the involved changes in cyclone structure and dynamics are unclear. Here, such structural c...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:wcdd98614 2023-05-15T17:29:14+02:00 Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LENS. Part I: cyclone intensity, PV anomalies and horizontal wind speed Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar Teubler, Franziska Pfahl, Stephan 2021-11-08 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-73 https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wcd-2021-73/ eng eng doi:10.5194/wcd-2021-73 https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wcd-2021-73/ eISSN: 2698-4016 Text 2021 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-73 2021-11-15T17:22:31Z Strong low-level winds associated with extratropical cyclones can cause substantial impacts on society. The wind intensity and the spatial distribution of wind maxima may change in a warming climate; however, the involved changes in cyclone structure and dynamics are unclear. Here, such structural changes of strong North Atlantic cyclones in a warmer climate close to the end of the current century are investigated with storm-relative composites based on Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS) simulations. Furthermore, a piecewise potential vorticity inversion is applied to associate such changes in low-level winds to changes in potential vorticity (PV) anomalies at different levels. Projected changes in cyclone intensity are generally rather small. However, using cyclone-relative composites, we identify an extended wind footprint southeast of the center of strong cyclones, where the wind speed tends to intensify in a warmer climate. Both an amplified low-level PV anomaly driven by enhanced diabatic heating and a dipole change in upper-level PV anomalies contribute to this wind intensification. On the contrary, wind changes associated with lower- and upper-level PV anomalies mostly compensate each other upstream of the cyclone center. Wind changes at upper levels are dominated by changes in upper-level PV anomalies and the background flow. All together, our results indicate that a complex interaction of enhanced diabatic heating and altered non-linear upper-tropospheric wave dynamics shape future changes in near-surface winds in North Atlantic cyclones. Text North Atlantic Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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English |
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Strong low-level winds associated with extratropical cyclones can cause substantial impacts on society. The wind intensity and the spatial distribution of wind maxima may change in a warming climate; however, the involved changes in cyclone structure and dynamics are unclear. Here, such structural changes of strong North Atlantic cyclones in a warmer climate close to the end of the current century are investigated with storm-relative composites based on Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS) simulations. Furthermore, a piecewise potential vorticity inversion is applied to associate such changes in low-level winds to changes in potential vorticity (PV) anomalies at different levels. Projected changes in cyclone intensity are generally rather small. However, using cyclone-relative composites, we identify an extended wind footprint southeast of the center of strong cyclones, where the wind speed tends to intensify in a warmer climate. Both an amplified low-level PV anomaly driven by enhanced diabatic heating and a dipole change in upper-level PV anomalies contribute to this wind intensification. On the contrary, wind changes associated with lower- and upper-level PV anomalies mostly compensate each other upstream of the cyclone center. Wind changes at upper levels are dominated by changes in upper-level PV anomalies and the background flow. All together, our results indicate that a complex interaction of enhanced diabatic heating and altered non-linear upper-tropospheric wave dynamics shape future changes in near-surface winds in North Atlantic cyclones. |
format |
Text |
author |
Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar Teubler, Franziska Pfahl, Stephan |
spellingShingle |
Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar Teubler, Franziska Pfahl, Stephan Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LENS. Part I: cyclone intensity, PV anomalies and horizontal wind speed |
author_facet |
Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar Teubler, Franziska Pfahl, Stephan |
author_sort |
Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar |
title |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LENS. Part I: cyclone intensity, PV anomalies and horizontal wind speed |
title_short |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LENS. Part I: cyclone intensity, PV anomalies and horizontal wind speed |
title_full |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LENS. Part I: cyclone intensity, PV anomalies and horizontal wind speed |
title_fullStr |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LENS. Part I: cyclone intensity, PV anomalies and horizontal wind speed |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LENS. Part I: cyclone intensity, PV anomalies and horizontal wind speed |
title_sort |
future changes in north atlantic winter cyclones in cesm-lens. part i: cyclone intensity, pv anomalies and horizontal wind speed |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-73 https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wcd-2021-73/ |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
eISSN: 2698-4016 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/wcd-2021-73 https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wcd-2021-73/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-73 |
_version_ |
1766122881782120448 |