Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns
The efficacy of Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes for estimating wintertime climate anomalies (precipitation and surface temperature) over Europe is assessed. A comparison of seasonal climate reconstructions from two different regime frameworks (cluster analysis of the low-level zonal flow, and trad...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:wcdd92564 2023-05-15T17:32:40+02:00 Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns Madonna, Erica Battisti, David S. Li, Camille White, Rachel H. 2021-01-28 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-6 https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wcd-2021-6/ eng eng doi:10.5194/wcd-2021-6 https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wcd-2021-6/ eISSN: 2698-4016 Text 2021 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-6 2021-02-01T17:21:47Z The efficacy of Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes for estimating wintertime climate anomalies (precipitation and surface temperature) over Europe is assessed. A comparison of seasonal climate reconstructions from two different regime frameworks (cluster analysis of the low-level zonal flow, and traditional blocking indices) is presented and contrasted with seasonal reconstructions using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The reconstructions are quantitatively evaluated using correlations and the coefficient of efficiency, accounting for misfit in phase and amplitude. While all methods show skill in reproducing wintertime precipitation and temperature variability, they underestimate the magnitude of seasonal anomalies by a factor of two. The regimes are found to capture more spatial structure in seasonal precipitation anomalies over Europe than the NAO, with the jet framework showing generally better skill relative to the blocking indices. The reconstructions of temperature anomalies have lower skill than those for precipitation, with the best results for temperature obtained by the NAO for high-latitude and by the blocking framework for southern Europe. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
The efficacy of Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes for estimating wintertime climate anomalies (precipitation and surface temperature) over Europe is assessed. A comparison of seasonal climate reconstructions from two different regime frameworks (cluster analysis of the low-level zonal flow, and traditional blocking indices) is presented and contrasted with seasonal reconstructions using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The reconstructions are quantitatively evaluated using correlations and the coefficient of efficiency, accounting for misfit in phase and amplitude. While all methods show skill in reproducing wintertime precipitation and temperature variability, they underestimate the magnitude of seasonal anomalies by a factor of two. The regimes are found to capture more spatial structure in seasonal precipitation anomalies over Europe than the NAO, with the jet framework showing generally better skill relative to the blocking indices. The reconstructions of temperature anomalies have lower skill than those for precipitation, with the best results for temperature obtained by the NAO for high-latitude and by the blocking framework for southern Europe. |
format |
Text |
author |
Madonna, Erica Battisti, David S. Li, Camille White, Rachel H. |
spellingShingle |
Madonna, Erica Battisti, David S. Li, Camille White, Rachel H. Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
author_facet |
Madonna, Erica Battisti, David S. Li, Camille White, Rachel H. |
author_sort |
Madonna, Erica |
title |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_short |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_full |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_fullStr |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_sort |
reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the euro-atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-6 https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wcd-2021-6/ |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
eISSN: 2698-4016 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/wcd-2021-6 https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wcd-2021-6/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-6 |
_version_ |
1766130894064582656 |