Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed
Strong low-level winds associated with extratropical cyclones can have substantial impacts on society. The wind intensity and the spatial distribution of wind maxima may change in a warming climate; however, the involved changes in cyclone structure and dynamics are not entirely clear. Here, such st...
Published in: | Weather and Climate Dynamics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/429/2022/ |
id |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:wcd98614 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:wcd98614 2023-05-15T17:29:22+02:00 Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar Teubler, Franziska Pfahl, Stephan 2022-04-05 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/429/2022/ eng eng doi:10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/429/2022/ eISSN: 2698-4016 Text 2022 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022 2022-04-11T16:22:18Z Strong low-level winds associated with extratropical cyclones can have substantial impacts on society. The wind intensity and the spatial distribution of wind maxima may change in a warming climate; however, the involved changes in cyclone structure and dynamics are not entirely clear. Here, such structural changes of strong North Atlantic cyclones in a warmer climate close to the end of the current century are investigated with storm-relative composites based on Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) simulations. Furthermore, a piecewise potential vorticity inversion is applied to associate such changes in low-level winds to changes in potential vorticity (PV) anomalies at different levels. Projected changes in cyclone intensity are generally rather small. However, using cyclone-relative composites, we identify an extended wind footprint southeast of the center of strong cyclones, where the wind speed tends to intensify in a warmer climate. Both an amplified low-level PV anomaly driven by enhanced diabatic heating and a dipole change in upper-level PV anomalies contribute to this wind intensification. On the contrary, wind changes associated with lower- and upper-level PV anomalies mostly compensate for each other upstream of the cyclone center. Wind changes at upper levels are dominated by changes in upper-level PV anomalies and the background flow. Altogether, our results indicate that a complex interaction of enhanced diabatic heating and altered non-linear upper-tropospheric wave dynamics shape future changes in near-surface winds in North Atlantic cyclones. Text North Atlantic Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Weather and Climate Dynamics 3 2 429 448 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Strong low-level winds associated with extratropical cyclones can have substantial impacts on society. The wind intensity and the spatial distribution of wind maxima may change in a warming climate; however, the involved changes in cyclone structure and dynamics are not entirely clear. Here, such structural changes of strong North Atlantic cyclones in a warmer climate close to the end of the current century are investigated with storm-relative composites based on Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) simulations. Furthermore, a piecewise potential vorticity inversion is applied to associate such changes in low-level winds to changes in potential vorticity (PV) anomalies at different levels. Projected changes in cyclone intensity are generally rather small. However, using cyclone-relative composites, we identify an extended wind footprint southeast of the center of strong cyclones, where the wind speed tends to intensify in a warmer climate. Both an amplified low-level PV anomaly driven by enhanced diabatic heating and a dipole change in upper-level PV anomalies contribute to this wind intensification. On the contrary, wind changes associated with lower- and upper-level PV anomalies mostly compensate for each other upstream of the cyclone center. Wind changes at upper levels are dominated by changes in upper-level PV anomalies and the background flow. Altogether, our results indicate that a complex interaction of enhanced diabatic heating and altered non-linear upper-tropospheric wave dynamics shape future changes in near-surface winds in North Atlantic cyclones. |
format |
Text |
author |
Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar Teubler, Franziska Pfahl, Stephan |
spellingShingle |
Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar Teubler, Franziska Pfahl, Stephan Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed |
author_facet |
Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar Teubler, Franziska Pfahl, Stephan |
author_sort |
Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar |
title |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed |
title_short |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed |
title_full |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed |
title_fullStr |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed |
title_sort |
future changes in north atlantic winter cyclones in cesm-le – part 1: cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/429/2022/ |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
eISSN: 2698-4016 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/429/2022/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
429 |
op_container_end_page |
448 |
_version_ |
1766123280374169600 |