Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns
The efficacy of Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes for estimating wintertime climate anomalies (precipitation and surface temperature) over Europe is assessed. A comparison of seasonal climate reconstructions from two different regime frameworks (cluster analysis of the low-level zonal flow, and trad...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:wcd92564 2023-05-15T17:33:13+02:00 Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns Madonna, Erica Battisti, David S. Li, Camille White, Rachel H. 2021-08-25 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/2/777/2021/ eng eng doi:10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/2/777/2021/ eISSN: 2698-4016 Text 2021 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021 2021-08-30T16:22:16Z The efficacy of Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes for estimating wintertime climate anomalies (precipitation and surface temperature) over Europe is assessed. A comparison of seasonal climate reconstructions from two different regime frameworks (cluster analysis of the low-level zonal flow, and traditional blocking indices) is presented and contrasted with seasonal reconstructions using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The reconstructions are quantitatively evaluated using correlations and the coefficient of efficiency, accounting for misfit in phase and amplitude. The skill of the various classifications in reconstructing seasonal anomalies depends on the variable and region of interest. The jet and blocking regimes are found to capture more spatial structure in seasonal precipitation anomalies over Europe than the NAO, with the jet framework showing generally better skill relative to the blocking indices. The reconstructions of temperature anomalies have lower skill than those for precipitation, with the best results for temperature obtained by the NAO for high-latitude and by the blocking framework for southern Europe. All methods underestimate the magnitude of seasonal anomalies due to the large variability in precipitation and temperature within each classification pattern. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Weather and Climate Dynamics 2 3 777 794 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
The efficacy of Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes for estimating wintertime climate anomalies (precipitation and surface temperature) over Europe is assessed. A comparison of seasonal climate reconstructions from two different regime frameworks (cluster analysis of the low-level zonal flow, and traditional blocking indices) is presented and contrasted with seasonal reconstructions using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The reconstructions are quantitatively evaluated using correlations and the coefficient of efficiency, accounting for misfit in phase and amplitude. The skill of the various classifications in reconstructing seasonal anomalies depends on the variable and region of interest. The jet and blocking regimes are found to capture more spatial structure in seasonal precipitation anomalies over Europe than the NAO, with the jet framework showing generally better skill relative to the blocking indices. The reconstructions of temperature anomalies have lower skill than those for precipitation, with the best results for temperature obtained by the NAO for high-latitude and by the blocking framework for southern Europe. All methods underestimate the magnitude of seasonal anomalies due to the large variability in precipitation and temperature within each classification pattern. |
format |
Text |
author |
Madonna, Erica Battisti, David S. Li, Camille White, Rachel H. |
spellingShingle |
Madonna, Erica Battisti, David S. Li, Camille White, Rachel H. Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
author_facet |
Madonna, Erica Battisti, David S. Li, Camille White, Rachel H. |
author_sort |
Madonna, Erica |
title |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_short |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_full |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_fullStr |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_sort |
reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the euro-atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/2/777/2021/ |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
eISSN: 2698-4016 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/2/777/2021/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
777 |
op_container_end_page |
794 |
_version_ |
1766131643401109504 |