Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells
The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is an important driver of mid-latitude winter cold spells. One proposed coupling mechanism between the stratospheric polar vortex and the troposphere is upward-propagating planetary waves being reflected downward by the polar vortex. However, while the wave refl...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:wcd102203 2023-05-15T15:07:06+02:00 Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells Messori, Gabriele Kretschmer, Marlene Lee, Simon H. Wendt, Vivien 2022-11-04 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1215/2022/ eng eng doi:10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1215/2022/ eISSN: 2698-4016 Text 2022 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022 2022-11-07T17:22:42Z The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is an important driver of mid-latitude winter cold spells. One proposed coupling mechanism between the stratospheric polar vortex and the troposphere is upward-propagating planetary waves being reflected downward by the polar vortex. However, while the wave reflection mechanism is well-documented, its role in favouring cold spells is still under-explored. Here, we analyse such stratospheric wave reflections and their impact on the tropospheric circulation and surface temperatures over North America in winter. We present a physically interpretable regional stratospheric wave reflection detection metric and identify the tropospheric circulation anomalies associated with prolonged periods of wave reflection, which we term reflection events . In particular, we characterise the tropospheric anomalies through the lens of North American weather regimes. Stratospheric reflection events show a systematic evolution from a Pacific Trough regime – associated on average with positive temperature anomalies and a near-complete absence of anomalously cold temperatures in North America – to an Alaskan Ridge regime, which favours low temperatures over much of the continent. The most striking feature of the stratospheric reflection events is thus a rapid, continental-scale decrease in temperatures. These emerge as continental-scale cold spells by the end of the reflection events. Stratospheric reflection events are thus highly relevant in a tropospheric predictability perspective. Text Arctic Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic Pacific Weather and Climate Dynamics 3 4 1215 1236 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is an important driver of mid-latitude winter cold spells. One proposed coupling mechanism between the stratospheric polar vortex and the troposphere is upward-propagating planetary waves being reflected downward by the polar vortex. However, while the wave reflection mechanism is well-documented, its role in favouring cold spells is still under-explored. Here, we analyse such stratospheric wave reflections and their impact on the tropospheric circulation and surface temperatures over North America in winter. We present a physically interpretable regional stratospheric wave reflection detection metric and identify the tropospheric circulation anomalies associated with prolonged periods of wave reflection, which we term reflection events . In particular, we characterise the tropospheric anomalies through the lens of North American weather regimes. Stratospheric reflection events show a systematic evolution from a Pacific Trough regime – associated on average with positive temperature anomalies and a near-complete absence of anomalously cold temperatures in North America – to an Alaskan Ridge regime, which favours low temperatures over much of the continent. The most striking feature of the stratospheric reflection events is thus a rapid, continental-scale decrease in temperatures. These emerge as continental-scale cold spells by the end of the reflection events. Stratospheric reflection events are thus highly relevant in a tropospheric predictability perspective. |
format |
Text |
author |
Messori, Gabriele Kretschmer, Marlene Lee, Simon H. Wendt, Vivien |
spellingShingle |
Messori, Gabriele Kretschmer, Marlene Lee, Simon H. Wendt, Vivien Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells |
author_facet |
Messori, Gabriele Kretschmer, Marlene Lee, Simon H. Wendt, Vivien |
author_sort |
Messori, Gabriele |
title |
Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells |
title_short |
Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells |
title_full |
Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells |
title_fullStr |
Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells |
title_sort |
stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate north american weather regimes and cold spells |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1215/2022/ |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
eISSN: 2698-4016 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1215/2022/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1215 |
op_container_end_page |
1236 |
_version_ |
1766338659954458624 |