Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front
The future evolution of storm tracks, their intensity, shape, and location, is an important driver of regional precipitation changes, cyclone-associated weather extremes, and regional climate patterns. For the North Atlantic storm track, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) data indicate a t...
Published in: | Weather and Climate Dynamics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/601/2022/ |
id |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:wcd100732 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:wcd100732 2023-05-15T17:36:24+02:00 Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front Schemm, Sebastian Papritz, Lukas Rivière, Gwendal 2022-05-19 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/601/2022/ eng eng doi:10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/601/2022/ eISSN: 2698-4016 Text 2022 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 2022-05-23T16:22:30Z The future evolution of storm tracks, their intensity, shape, and location, is an important driver of regional precipitation changes, cyclone-associated weather extremes, and regional climate patterns. For the North Atlantic storm track, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) data indicate a tripole pattern of change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In this study, the tripole pattern is qualitatively reproduced by simulating the change of a storm track generated downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature (SST) front under uniform warming on an aquaplanet. The simulated tripole pattern consists of reduced eddy kinetic energy (EKE) upstream and equatorward of the SST front, extended and poleward shifted enhanced EKE downstream of the SST front, and a regionally reduced EKE increase at polar latitudes. In the absence of the idealized SST front, in contrast, the storm track exhibits a poleward shift but no tripole pattern. A detailed analysis of the EKE and eddy available potential energy (EAPE) sources and sinks reveals that the changes are locally driven by changes in baroclinic conversion rather than diabatic processes. However, globally the change in baroclinic conversion averages to zero; thus the observed global EAPE increase results from diabatic generation. In particular, resolved-scale condensation plus parameterized cloud physics dominate the global EAPE increase followed by longwave radiation. Amplified stationary waves affect EKE and EAPE advection, which contributes to the local EKE and EAPE minimum at polar latitudes. Feature-based tracking provides further insight into cyclone life cycle changes downstream of the SST front. Moderately deepening cyclones deepen less in a warmer climate, while strongly deepening cyclones deepen more. Similarly, the average cyclone becomes less intense in a warmer climate, while the extremely intense cyclones become more intense. Both results hold true for cyclones with genesis in the vicinity of the SST front and elsewhere. The mean cyclone lifetime decreases, ... Text North Atlantic Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Weather and Climate Dynamics 3 2 601 623 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
The future evolution of storm tracks, their intensity, shape, and location, is an important driver of regional precipitation changes, cyclone-associated weather extremes, and regional climate patterns. For the North Atlantic storm track, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) data indicate a tripole pattern of change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In this study, the tripole pattern is qualitatively reproduced by simulating the change of a storm track generated downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature (SST) front under uniform warming on an aquaplanet. The simulated tripole pattern consists of reduced eddy kinetic energy (EKE) upstream and equatorward of the SST front, extended and poleward shifted enhanced EKE downstream of the SST front, and a regionally reduced EKE increase at polar latitudes. In the absence of the idealized SST front, in contrast, the storm track exhibits a poleward shift but no tripole pattern. A detailed analysis of the EKE and eddy available potential energy (EAPE) sources and sinks reveals that the changes are locally driven by changes in baroclinic conversion rather than diabatic processes. However, globally the change in baroclinic conversion averages to zero; thus the observed global EAPE increase results from diabatic generation. In particular, resolved-scale condensation plus parameterized cloud physics dominate the global EAPE increase followed by longwave radiation. Amplified stationary waves affect EKE and EAPE advection, which contributes to the local EKE and EAPE minimum at polar latitudes. Feature-based tracking provides further insight into cyclone life cycle changes downstream of the SST front. Moderately deepening cyclones deepen less in a warmer climate, while strongly deepening cyclones deepen more. Similarly, the average cyclone becomes less intense in a warmer climate, while the extremely intense cyclones become more intense. Both results hold true for cyclones with genesis in the vicinity of the SST front and elsewhere. The mean cyclone lifetime decreases, ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Schemm, Sebastian Papritz, Lukas Rivière, Gwendal |
spellingShingle |
Schemm, Sebastian Papritz, Lukas Rivière, Gwendal Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
author_facet |
Schemm, Sebastian Papritz, Lukas Rivière, Gwendal |
author_sort |
Schemm, Sebastian |
title |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_short |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_full |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_fullStr |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_full_unstemmed |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_sort |
storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/601/2022/ |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
eISSN: 2698-4016 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/601/2022/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
601 |
op_container_end_page |
623 |
_version_ |
1766135868640198656 |