Assessing volumetric change distributions and scaling relations of retrogressive thaw slumps across the Arctic

• Main Authors: Bernhard, Philipp, Zwieback, Simon, Bergner, Nora, Hajnsek, Irena
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2021
• Subjects: Arctic; Ice; permafrost; Thermokarst
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-137; https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2021-137/

Arctic ice-rich permafrost is becoming increasingly vulnerable to terrain altering thermokarst, and among the most rapid and dramatic of these changes are retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS). They initiate when ice-rich soils are exposed and thaw, leading to the formation of a steep headwall which retreats during the summer months. These impacts, the distribution and scaling laws governing RTS changes within and between regions are unknown. Using TanDEM-X-derived digital elevation models, we estimated RTS volume and area changes over a 5-year period. We contrasted 9 regions (Eurasia: 4, North America: 5), with a total size of 220,000 km 3 , and over that time all 1853 RTSs combined mobilized a total volume of 17 · 10 6 m 3 yr −1 corresponding to a volumetric change density of 77 m 3 yr −1 km −2 . Our remote sensing data revealed inter-regional differences in mobilized volumes, scaling laws and terrain controls. The area-to-volume scaling could be well described by a power law with an exponent of 1.15 across all regions, however the individual regions had scaling exponents ranging from 1.05 to 1.37 indicating that regional characteristics need to be taken into account when estimating RTS volumetric change from area change. The distributions of RTS area and volumetric change rates followed an inverse gamma function with a distinct peak and an exponential decrease for the largest RTSs. We found that distributions in the high Arctic were shifted towards larger values. Among the terrain controls on RTS distributions that we examined, slope, adjacency to waterbodies and aspect, the latter showed the greatest, but regionally variable association with thaw slump occurrence. Accounting for the observed regional differences in volumetric change distributions, scaling relations and terrain controls may enhance the modelling and monitoring of Arctic carbon, nutrient and sediment cycles.