The tipping points and early-warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to this is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, ice-internal dyna...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tcd86682 2023-05-15T13:24:05+02:00 The tipping points and early-warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda 2020-08-04 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-186 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-186/ eng eng doi:10.5194/tc-2020-186 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-186/ eISSN: 1994-0424 Text 2020 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-186 2020-08-10T16:22:01Z Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to this is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, ice-internal dynamics can drive a self-amplifying retreat committing a glacier to irreversible, rapid and substantial ice loss. This process might have already been triggered in the Amundsen Sea region, where Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate the current mass loss from Antarctica, but modelling and observational techniques have not been able to establish this rigorously, leading to divergent views on the future mass loss of the WAIS. Here, we aim at closing this knowledge gap by conducting a systematic investigation of the stability regime of Pine Island Glacier. To this end we show that early warning indicators robustly detect critical slowing for the marine ice sheet instability. We are thereby able to identify three distinct tipping points in response to increases in ocean-induced melt. The third and final event, triggered by an ocean warming of approximately 1.2 °C from the steady state model configuration, leads to a retreat of the entire glacier that could initiate a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Text Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier West Antarctica Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Amundsen Sea Antarctic Pine Island Glacier ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
description |
Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to this is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, ice-internal dynamics can drive a self-amplifying retreat committing a glacier to irreversible, rapid and substantial ice loss. This process might have already been triggered in the Amundsen Sea region, where Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate the current mass loss from Antarctica, but modelling and observational techniques have not been able to establish this rigorously, leading to divergent views on the future mass loss of the WAIS. Here, we aim at closing this knowledge gap by conducting a systematic investigation of the stability regime of Pine Island Glacier. To this end we show that early warning indicators robustly detect critical slowing for the marine ice sheet instability. We are thereby able to identify three distinct tipping points in response to increases in ocean-induced melt. The third and final event, triggered by an ocean warming of approximately 1.2 °C from the steady state model configuration, leads to a retreat of the entire glacier that could initiate a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. |
format |
Text |
author |
Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda |
spellingShingle |
Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda The tipping points and early-warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
author_facet |
Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_sort |
Rosier, Sebastian H. R. |
title |
The tipping points and early-warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_short |
The tipping points and early-warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_full |
The tipping points and early-warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
The tipping points and early-warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
The tipping points and early-warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_sort |
tipping points and early-warning indicators for pine island glacier, west antarctica |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-186 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-186/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) |
geographic |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Pine Island Glacier The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Pine Island Glacier The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier West Antarctica |
op_source |
eISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-2020-186 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-186/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-186 |
_version_ |
1766377370596409344 |