The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6, Part 1: projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century
Polar amplification will result in amplified temperature changes in the Arctic with respect to the rest of the globe making the Greenland ice sheet particularly vulnerable to global warming. While the ice sheet has been showing an increase mass loss in the past decades, its contribution to global se...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tcd85655 2023-05-15T13:55:28+02:00 The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6, Part 1: projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century Quiquet, Aurélien Dumas, Christophe 2020-06-02 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-139 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-139/ eng eng doi:10.5194/tc-2020-139 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-139/ eISSN: 1994-0424 Text 2020 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-139 2020-07-20T16:22:07Z Polar amplification will result in amplified temperature changes in the Arctic with respect to the rest of the globe making the Greenland ice sheet particularly vulnerable to global warming. While the ice sheet has been showing an increase mass loss in the past decades, its contribution to global sea level rise in the future is of primary importance since it is at present the largest single source contribution behind the thermosteric contribution. The question of the fate of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets for the next century has recently gathered various ice sheet models in a common framework within the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6. While in a companion paper we present the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica, we present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Greenland. We show an important spread in the simulated Greenland ice loss in the future depending on the climate forcing used. The contribution of the ice sheet to global sea level rise in 2100 can be thus as low as 20 mmSLE to as high as 160 mmSLE. The CMIP6 models produce much larger ice sheet retreat than their CMIP5 counterparts. Low emission scenarios in the future drastically reduce the ice mass loss. The mass loss is mostly driven by atmospheric warming and associated ablation at the ice sheet margin while oceanic forcing contributes to about 10 mmSLE in 2100 in our simulations. Text Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Antarctic Arctic Greenland |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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English |
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Polar amplification will result in amplified temperature changes in the Arctic with respect to the rest of the globe making the Greenland ice sheet particularly vulnerable to global warming. While the ice sheet has been showing an increase mass loss in the past decades, its contribution to global sea level rise in the future is of primary importance since it is at present the largest single source contribution behind the thermosteric contribution. The question of the fate of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets for the next century has recently gathered various ice sheet models in a common framework within the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6. While in a companion paper we present the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica, we present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Greenland. We show an important spread in the simulated Greenland ice loss in the future depending on the climate forcing used. The contribution of the ice sheet to global sea level rise in 2100 can be thus as low as 20 mmSLE to as high as 160 mmSLE. The CMIP6 models produce much larger ice sheet retreat than their CMIP5 counterparts. Low emission scenarios in the future drastically reduce the ice mass loss. The mass loss is mostly driven by atmospheric warming and associated ablation at the ice sheet margin while oceanic forcing contributes to about 10 mmSLE in 2100 in our simulations. |
format |
Text |
author |
Quiquet, Aurélien Dumas, Christophe |
spellingShingle |
Quiquet, Aurélien Dumas, Christophe The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6, Part 1: projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
author_facet |
Quiquet, Aurélien Dumas, Christophe |
author_sort |
Quiquet, Aurélien |
title |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6, Part 1: projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_short |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6, Part 1: projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_full |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6, Part 1: projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6, Part 1: projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6, Part 1: projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_sort |
grisli-lsce contribution to ismip6, part 1: projections of the greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-139 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-139/ |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
eISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-2020-139 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-139/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-139 |
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1766262087802159104 |