Sensitivity of the Greenland mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters
We investigate the sensitivity of a glacier surface mass and energy balance model using a variance based analysis, for two distinct periods of the last glacial cycle: present day climate and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The results can be summarized in three major findings: The sensitivity toward...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tcd81231 2023-05-15T16:21:14+02:00 Sensitivity of the Greenland mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters Zolles, Tobias Born, Andreas 2019-11-14 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-251 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2019-251/ eng eng doi:10.5194/tc-2019-251 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2019-251/ eISSN: 1994-0424 Text 2019 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-251 2020-07-20T16:22:35Z We investigate the sensitivity of a glacier surface mass and energy balance model using a variance based analysis, for two distinct periods of the last glacial cycle: present day climate and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The results can be summarized in three major findings: The sensitivity towards individual model parameters and parameterizations is neither invariant in space nor in time. The model is most sensitive to uncertainty related to down-welling long-wave radiation. Turbulent latent heat flux has a sizable contribution to the surface mass balance uncertainty in central Greenland today and over the entire ice sheet during the cold climate of the LGM, in spite of its low impact on the overall surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet in modern climate. We conclude that quantifying the model sensitivity is very helpful for the subsequent tuning of free model parameters, because it clarifies the relative importance of individual parameters and highlights interactions between them that need to be considered. Text glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Greenland |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
We investigate the sensitivity of a glacier surface mass and energy balance model using a variance based analysis, for two distinct periods of the last glacial cycle: present day climate and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The results can be summarized in three major findings: The sensitivity towards individual model parameters and parameterizations is neither invariant in space nor in time. The model is most sensitive to uncertainty related to down-welling long-wave radiation. Turbulent latent heat flux has a sizable contribution to the surface mass balance uncertainty in central Greenland today and over the entire ice sheet during the cold climate of the LGM, in spite of its low impact on the overall surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet in modern climate. We conclude that quantifying the model sensitivity is very helpful for the subsequent tuning of free model parameters, because it clarifies the relative importance of individual parameters and highlights interactions between them that need to be considered. |
format |
Text |
author |
Zolles, Tobias Born, Andreas |
spellingShingle |
Zolles, Tobias Born, Andreas Sensitivity of the Greenland mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters |
author_facet |
Zolles, Tobias Born, Andreas |
author_sort |
Zolles, Tobias |
title |
Sensitivity of the Greenland mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters |
title_short |
Sensitivity of the Greenland mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters |
title_full |
Sensitivity of the Greenland mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters |
title_fullStr |
Sensitivity of the Greenland mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sensitivity of the Greenland mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters |
title_sort |
sensitivity of the greenland mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-251 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2019-251/ |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
eISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-2019-251 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2019-251/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-251 |
_version_ |
1766009236897136640 |