A statistical fracture model for Antarctic glaciers
Antarctic and Greenland hold more than 99 % of all fresh water on Earth and, therefore, can significantly influence global sea level. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends upon ice sheet modelling, but it is limited by knowledge of a number of processes, some of which are still poorly und...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tcd59239 2023-05-15T13:54:27+02:00 A statistical fracture model for Antarctic glaciers Emetc, Veronika Tregoning, Paul Sambridge, Malcolm 2018-09-26 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-98 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2017-98/ eng eng doi:10.5194/tc-2017-98 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2017-98/ eISSN: 1994-0424 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-98 2020-07-20T16:23:43Z Antarctic and Greenland hold more than 99 % of all fresh water on Earth and, therefore, can significantly influence global sea level. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends upon ice sheet modelling, but it is limited by knowledge of a number of processes, some of which are still poorly understood. One such process is the calving of the ice shelves, where blocks of ice break off from the ice front. However, large scale ice flow models do not include an accurate representation of this process and the most commonly used damage mechanics and fracture mechanics methods have a large number of uncertainties. Here we present an alternative, statistics-based method to model the most probable zones of nucleation of fractures. We test our theory on all main ice shelf regions in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula. We can model up to 99 % of observed fractures, with an average rate of 77 % which represents a 50 % improvement over previously used damage-based approaches, thus providing the basis for modelling calving of ice shelves. We found that classifying Antarctic ice shelf regions based on the factors that controlled fracture formation led to grouping of ice shelves/glaciers with similar physical characteristics and geometry. Text Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Greenland The Antarctic |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Antarctic and Greenland hold more than 99 % of all fresh water on Earth and, therefore, can significantly influence global sea level. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends upon ice sheet modelling, but it is limited by knowledge of a number of processes, some of which are still poorly understood. One such process is the calving of the ice shelves, where blocks of ice break off from the ice front. However, large scale ice flow models do not include an accurate representation of this process and the most commonly used damage mechanics and fracture mechanics methods have a large number of uncertainties. Here we present an alternative, statistics-based method to model the most probable zones of nucleation of fractures. We test our theory on all main ice shelf regions in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula. We can model up to 99 % of observed fractures, with an average rate of 77 % which represents a 50 % improvement over previously used damage-based approaches, thus providing the basis for modelling calving of ice shelves. We found that classifying Antarctic ice shelf regions based on the factors that controlled fracture formation led to grouping of ice shelves/glaciers with similar physical characteristics and geometry. |
format |
Text |
author |
Emetc, Veronika Tregoning, Paul Sambridge, Malcolm |
spellingShingle |
Emetc, Veronika Tregoning, Paul Sambridge, Malcolm A statistical fracture model for Antarctic glaciers |
author_facet |
Emetc, Veronika Tregoning, Paul Sambridge, Malcolm |
author_sort |
Emetc, Veronika |
title |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic glaciers |
title_short |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic glaciers |
title_full |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic glaciers |
title_fullStr |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic glaciers |
title_full_unstemmed |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic glaciers |
title_sort |
statistical fracture model for antarctic glaciers |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-98 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2017-98/ |
geographic |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Greenland The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Greenland The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
op_source |
eISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-2017-98 https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2017-98/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-98 |
_version_ |
1766260323942137856 |