The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to ongoing and future changes is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is cros...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tc86682 2023-05-15T13:24:06+02:00 The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda 2021-03-25 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1501/2021/ eng eng doi:10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1501/2021/ eISSN: 1994-0424 Text 2021 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021 2021-03-29T16:22:16Z Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to ongoing and future changes is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, ice internal dynamics can drive a self-sustaining retreat committing a glacier to irreversible, rapid and substantial ice loss. This process might have already been triggered in the Amundsen Sea region, where Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate the current mass loss from Antarctica, but modelling and observational techniques have not been able to establish this rigorously, leading to divergent views on the future mass loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here, we aim at closing this knowledge gap by conducting a systematic investigation of the stability regime of Pine Island Glacier. To this end we show that early warning indicators in model simulations robustly detect the onset of the marine ice sheet instability. We are thereby able to identify three distinct tipping points in response to increases in ocean-induced melt. The third and final event, triggered by an ocean warming of approximately 1.2 ∘ C from the steady-state model configuration, leads to a retreat of the entire glacier that could initiate a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Text Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier West Antarctica Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Amundsen Sea Antarctic Pine Island Glacier ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica The Cryosphere 15 3 1501 1516 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to ongoing and future changes is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, ice internal dynamics can drive a self-sustaining retreat committing a glacier to irreversible, rapid and substantial ice loss. This process might have already been triggered in the Amundsen Sea region, where Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate the current mass loss from Antarctica, but modelling and observational techniques have not been able to establish this rigorously, leading to divergent views on the future mass loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here, we aim at closing this knowledge gap by conducting a systematic investigation of the stability regime of Pine Island Glacier. To this end we show that early warning indicators in model simulations robustly detect the onset of the marine ice sheet instability. We are thereby able to identify three distinct tipping points in response to increases in ocean-induced melt. The third and final event, triggered by an ocean warming of approximately 1.2 ∘ C from the steady-state model configuration, leads to a retreat of the entire glacier that could initiate a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. |
format |
Text |
author |
Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda |
spellingShingle |
Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
author_facet |
Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_sort |
Rosier, Sebastian H. R. |
title |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_short |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_full |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_sort |
tipping points and early warning indicators for pine island glacier, west antarctica |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1501/2021/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) |
geographic |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Pine Island Glacier The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Pine Island Glacier The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier West Antarctica |
op_source |
eISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1501/2021/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1501 |
op_container_end_page |
1516 |
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1766377486564720640 |