Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100
The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulation...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/1245/2020/ |
id |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tc79791 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tc79791 2023-05-15T13:23:53+02:00 Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna V. Nias, Isabel J. Payne, Antony J. Golledge, Nicholas R. Bingham, Rory J. 2020-04-15 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/1245/2020/ eng eng doi:10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/1245/2020/ eISSN: 1994-0424 Text 2020 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 2020-07-20T16:22:17Z The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) ice sheet model, with high-resolution grounding line resolving capabilities, to explore grounding line migration in response to projected sub-ice-shelf basal melting. We find a contribution to sea level rise of between 2.0 and 4.5 cm by 2100 under RCP8.5 conditions from the CMIP5 subset, where the mass loss response is linearly related to the mean ocean temperature anomaly. To account for uncertainty associated with model initialization, we perform three further sets of CMIP5-forced experiments using different parameterizations that explore perturbations to the prescription of initial basal melt, the basal traction coefficient and the ice stiffening factor. We find that the response of the ASE to ocean temperature forcing is highly dependent on the parameter fields obtained in the initialization procedure, where the sensitivity of the ASE ice streams to the sub-ice-shelf melt forcing is dependent on the choice of parameter set. Accounting for ice sheet model parameter uncertainty results in a projected range in sea level equivalent contribution from the ASE of between −0.02 and 12.1 cm by the end of the 21st century. Text Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf West Antarctica Copernicus Publications: E-Journals West Antarctica Amundsen Sea The Cryosphere 14 4 1245 1258 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) ice sheet model, with high-resolution grounding line resolving capabilities, to explore grounding line migration in response to projected sub-ice-shelf basal melting. We find a contribution to sea level rise of between 2.0 and 4.5 cm by 2100 under RCP8.5 conditions from the CMIP5 subset, where the mass loss response is linearly related to the mean ocean temperature anomaly. To account for uncertainty associated with model initialization, we perform three further sets of CMIP5-forced experiments using different parameterizations that explore perturbations to the prescription of initial basal melt, the basal traction coefficient and the ice stiffening factor. We find that the response of the ASE to ocean temperature forcing is highly dependent on the parameter fields obtained in the initialization procedure, where the sensitivity of the ASE ice streams to the sub-ice-shelf melt forcing is dependent on the choice of parameter set. Accounting for ice sheet model parameter uncertainty results in a projected range in sea level equivalent contribution from the ASE of between −0.02 and 12.1 cm by the end of the 21st century. |
format |
Text |
author |
Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna V. Nias, Isabel J. Payne, Antony J. Golledge, Nicholas R. Bingham, Rory J. |
spellingShingle |
Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna V. Nias, Isabel J. Payne, Antony J. Golledge, Nicholas R. Bingham, Rory J. Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
author_facet |
Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna V. Nias, Isabel J. Payne, Antony J. Golledge, Nicholas R. Bingham, Rory J. |
author_sort |
Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna V. |
title |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_short |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_full |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_fullStr |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_sort |
ocean-forced evolution of the amundsen sea catchment, west antarctica, by 2100 |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/1245/2020/ |
geographic |
West Antarctica Amundsen Sea |
geographic_facet |
West Antarctica Amundsen Sea |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf West Antarctica |
op_source |
eISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/1245/2020/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1245 |
op_container_end_page |
1258 |
_version_ |
1766376108445401088 |