Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F
The neXtSIM-F (neXtSIM forecast) forecasting system consists of a stand-alone sea ice model, neXtSIM (neXt-generation Sea Ice Model), forced by the TOPAZ ocean forecast and the ECMWF atmospheric forecast, combined with daily data assimilation of sea ice concentration. It uses the novel brittle Bingh...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tc77716 2023-05-15T14:58:45+02:00 Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F Williams, Timothy Korosov, Anton Rampal, Pierre Ólason, Einar 2021-07-12 info:eu-repo/semantics/application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/3207/2021/ eng eng info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/607476 doi:10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/3207/2021/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess eISSN: 1994-0424 info:eu-repo/semantics/Text 2021 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021 2021-07-19T16:22:28Z The neXtSIM-F (neXtSIM forecast) forecasting system consists of a stand-alone sea ice model, neXtSIM (neXt-generation Sea Ice Model), forced by the TOPAZ ocean forecast and the ECMWF atmospheric forecast, combined with daily data assimilation of sea ice concentration. It uses the novel brittle Bingham–Maxwell (BBM) sea ice rheology, making it the first forecast based on a continuum model not to use the viscous–plastic (VP) rheology. It was tested in the Arctic for the time period November 2018–June 2020 and was found to perform well, although there are some shortcomings. Despite drift not being assimilated in our system, the sea ice drift is good throughout the year, being relatively unbiased, even for longer lead times like 5 d. The RMSE in speed and the total RMSE are also good for the first 3 or so days, although they both increase steadily with lead time. The thickness distribution is relatively good, although there are some regions that experience excessive thickening with negative implications for the summertime sea ice extent, particularly in the Greenland Sea. The neXtSIM-F forecasting system assimilates OSI SAF sea ice concentration products (both SSMIS and AMSR2) by modifying the initial conditions daily and adding a compensating heat flux to prevent removed ice growing back too quickly. The assimilation greatly improves the sea ice extent for the forecast duration. Other/Unknown Material Arctic Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic Bingham ENVELOPE(-63.400,-63.400,-69.400,-69.400) Greenland The Cryosphere 15 7 3207 3227 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
The neXtSIM-F (neXtSIM forecast) forecasting system consists of a stand-alone sea ice model, neXtSIM (neXt-generation Sea Ice Model), forced by the TOPAZ ocean forecast and the ECMWF atmospheric forecast, combined with daily data assimilation of sea ice concentration. It uses the novel brittle Bingham–Maxwell (BBM) sea ice rheology, making it the first forecast based on a continuum model not to use the viscous–plastic (VP) rheology. It was tested in the Arctic for the time period November 2018–June 2020 and was found to perform well, although there are some shortcomings. Despite drift not being assimilated in our system, the sea ice drift is good throughout the year, being relatively unbiased, even for longer lead times like 5 d. The RMSE in speed and the total RMSE are also good for the first 3 or so days, although they both increase steadily with lead time. The thickness distribution is relatively good, although there are some regions that experience excessive thickening with negative implications for the summertime sea ice extent, particularly in the Greenland Sea. The neXtSIM-F forecasting system assimilates OSI SAF sea ice concentration products (both SSMIS and AMSR2) by modifying the initial conditions daily and adding a compensating heat flux to prevent removed ice growing back too quickly. The assimilation greatly improves the sea ice extent for the forecast duration. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Williams, Timothy Korosov, Anton Rampal, Pierre Ólason, Einar |
spellingShingle |
Williams, Timothy Korosov, Anton Rampal, Pierre Ólason, Einar Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F |
author_facet |
Williams, Timothy Korosov, Anton Rampal, Pierre Ólason, Einar |
author_sort |
Williams, Timothy |
title |
Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F |
title_short |
Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F |
title_full |
Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F |
title_fullStr |
Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F |
title_full_unstemmed |
Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F |
title_sort |
presentation and evaluation of the arctic sea ice forecasting system nextsim-f |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/3207/2021/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-63.400,-63.400,-69.400,-69.400) |
geographic |
Arctic Bingham Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Bingham Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
eISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/607476 doi:10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/3207/2021/ |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
3207 |
op_container_end_page |
3227 |
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1766330875757199360 |