Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations
In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has shifted toward a younger, thinner, seasonal ice regime. Studying and understanding this “new” Arctic will be the focus of a year-long ship campaign beginning in autumn 2019. Lagrangian tracking of sea ice floes in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tc77522 2023-05-15T14:54:49+02:00 Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations DuVivier, Alice K. DeRepentigny, Patricia Holland, Marika M. Webster, Melinda Kay, Jennifer E. Perovich, Donald 2020-04-16 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1259-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/1259/2020/ eng eng doi:10.5194/tc-14-1259-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/1259/2020/ eISSN: 1994-0424 Text 2020 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1259-2020 2020-07-20T16:22:15Z In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has shifted toward a younger, thinner, seasonal ice regime. Studying and understanding this “new” Arctic will be the focus of a year-long ship campaign beginning in autumn 2019. Lagrangian tracking of sea ice floes in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) during representative “perennial” and “seasonal” time periods allows for understanding of the conditions that a floe could experience throughout the calendar year. These model tracks, put into context a single year of observations, provide guidance on how observations can optimally shape model development, and how climate models could be used in future campaign planning. The modeled floe tracks show a range of possible trajectories, though a Transpolar Drift trajectory is most likely. There is also a small but emerging possibility of high-risk tracks, including possible melt of the floe before the end of a calendar year. We find that a Lagrangian approach is essential in order to correctly compare the seasonal cycle of sea ice conditions between point-based observations and a model. Because of high variability in the melt season sea ice conditions, we recommend in situ sampling over a large range of ice conditions for a more complete understanding of how ice type and surface conditions affect the observed processes. We find that sea ice predictability emerges rapidly during the autumn freeze-up and anticipate that process-based observations during this period may help elucidate the processes leading to this change in predictability. Text Arctic Sea ice Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic The Cryosphere 14 4 1259 1271 |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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English |
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In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has shifted toward a younger, thinner, seasonal ice regime. Studying and understanding this “new” Arctic will be the focus of a year-long ship campaign beginning in autumn 2019. Lagrangian tracking of sea ice floes in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) during representative “perennial” and “seasonal” time periods allows for understanding of the conditions that a floe could experience throughout the calendar year. These model tracks, put into context a single year of observations, provide guidance on how observations can optimally shape model development, and how climate models could be used in future campaign planning. The modeled floe tracks show a range of possible trajectories, though a Transpolar Drift trajectory is most likely. There is also a small but emerging possibility of high-risk tracks, including possible melt of the floe before the end of a calendar year. We find that a Lagrangian approach is essential in order to correctly compare the seasonal cycle of sea ice conditions between point-based observations and a model. Because of high variability in the melt season sea ice conditions, we recommend in situ sampling over a large range of ice conditions for a more complete understanding of how ice type and surface conditions affect the observed processes. We find that sea ice predictability emerges rapidly during the autumn freeze-up and anticipate that process-based observations during this period may help elucidate the processes leading to this change in predictability. |
format |
Text |
author |
DuVivier, Alice K. DeRepentigny, Patricia Holland, Marika M. Webster, Melinda Kay, Jennifer E. Perovich, Donald |
spellingShingle |
DuVivier, Alice K. DeRepentigny, Patricia Holland, Marika M. Webster, Melinda Kay, Jennifer E. Perovich, Donald Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations |
author_facet |
DuVivier, Alice K. DeRepentigny, Patricia Holland, Marika M. Webster, Melinda Kay, Jennifer E. Perovich, Donald |
author_sort |
DuVivier, Alice K. |
title |
Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations |
title_short |
Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations |
title_full |
Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations |
title_fullStr |
Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations |
title_sort |
going with the floe: tracking cesm large ensemble sea ice in the arctic provides context for ship-based observations |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1259-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/1259/2020/ |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
eISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-14-1259-2020 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/1259/2020/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1259-2020 |
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The Cryosphere |
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14 |
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4 |
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1259 |
op_container_end_page |
1271 |
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1766326563709648896 |