Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws
Thwaites Glacier (TG), West Antarctica, has experienced rapid, potentially irreversible grounding line retreat and mass loss in response to enhanced ice shelf melting. Results from recent numerical models suggest a large spread in the evolution of the glacier in the coming decades to a century. It i...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tc69017 2023-05-15T13:55:28+02:00 Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws Yu, Hongju Rignot, Eric Seroussi, Helene Morlighem, Mathieu 2018-12-11 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/3861/2018/ eng eng doi:10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/3861/2018/ eISSN: 1994-0424 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018 2020-07-20T16:23:01Z Thwaites Glacier (TG), West Antarctica, has experienced rapid, potentially irreversible grounding line retreat and mass loss in response to enhanced ice shelf melting. Results from recent numerical models suggest a large spread in the evolution of the glacier in the coming decades to a century. It is therefore important to investigate how different approximations of the ice stress balance, parameterizations of basal friction and ice shelf melt parameterizations may affect projections. Here, we simulate the evolution of TG using ice sheet models of varying levels of complexity, different basal friction laws and ice shelf melt to quantify their effect on the projections. We find that the grounding line retreat and its sensitivity to ice shelf melt are enhanced when a full-Stokes model is used, a Budd friction is used and ice shelf melt is applied on partially floating elements. Initial conditions also impact the model results. Yet, all simulations suggest a rapid, sustained retreat of the glacier along the same preferred pathway. The fastest retreat rate occurs on the eastern side of the glacier, and the slowest retreat occurs across a subglacial ridge on the western side. All the simulations indicate that TG will undergo an accelerated retreat once the glacier retreats past the western subglacial ridge. Combining all the simulations, we find that the uncertainty of the projections is small in the first 30 years, with a cumulative contribution to sea level rise of 5 mm, similar to the current rate. After 30 years, the contribution to sea level depends on the model configurations, with differences up to 300 % over the next 100 years, ranging from 14 to 42 mm. Text Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Thwaites Glacier West Antarctica Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Thwaites Glacier ENVELOPE(-106.750,-106.750,-75.500,-75.500) West Antarctica The Cryosphere 12 12 3861 3876 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Thwaites Glacier (TG), West Antarctica, has experienced rapid, potentially irreversible grounding line retreat and mass loss in response to enhanced ice shelf melting. Results from recent numerical models suggest a large spread in the evolution of the glacier in the coming decades to a century. It is therefore important to investigate how different approximations of the ice stress balance, parameterizations of basal friction and ice shelf melt parameterizations may affect projections. Here, we simulate the evolution of TG using ice sheet models of varying levels of complexity, different basal friction laws and ice shelf melt to quantify their effect on the projections. We find that the grounding line retreat and its sensitivity to ice shelf melt are enhanced when a full-Stokes model is used, a Budd friction is used and ice shelf melt is applied on partially floating elements. Initial conditions also impact the model results. Yet, all simulations suggest a rapid, sustained retreat of the glacier along the same preferred pathway. The fastest retreat rate occurs on the eastern side of the glacier, and the slowest retreat occurs across a subglacial ridge on the western side. All the simulations indicate that TG will undergo an accelerated retreat once the glacier retreats past the western subglacial ridge. Combining all the simulations, we find that the uncertainty of the projections is small in the first 30 years, with a cumulative contribution to sea level rise of 5 mm, similar to the current rate. After 30 years, the contribution to sea level depends on the model configurations, with differences up to 300 % over the next 100 years, ranging from 14 to 42 mm. |
format |
Text |
author |
Yu, Hongju Rignot, Eric Seroussi, Helene Morlighem, Mathieu |
spellingShingle |
Yu, Hongju Rignot, Eric Seroussi, Helene Morlighem, Mathieu Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws |
author_facet |
Yu, Hongju Rignot, Eric Seroussi, Helene Morlighem, Mathieu |
author_sort |
Yu, Hongju |
title |
Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws |
title_short |
Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws |
title_full |
Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws |
title_fullStr |
Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws |
title_full_unstemmed |
Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws |
title_sort |
retreat of thwaites glacier, west antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/3861/2018/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-106.750,-106.750,-75.500,-75.500) |
geographic |
Thwaites Glacier West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Thwaites Glacier West Antarctica |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Thwaites Glacier West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Thwaites Glacier West Antarctica |
op_source |
eISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/3861/2018/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
3861 |
op_container_end_page |
3876 |
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1766262120821817344 |