Brief communication: Impact of the recent atmospheric circulation change in summer on the future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Since the 2000s, a change in the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic resulting in more frequent blocking events has favoured warmer and sunnier weather conditions over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in summer, enhancing the melt increase. This circulation change is not represented by gen...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tc67553 2023-05-15T16:27:36+02:00 Brief communication: Impact of the recent atmospheric circulation change in summer on the future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet Delhasse, Alison Fettweis, Xavier Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Agosta, Cécile 2018-12-11 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3409-2018 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/3409/2018/ eng eng doi:10.5194/tc-12-3409-2018 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/3409/2018/ eISSN: 1994-0424 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3409-2018 2020-07-20T16:23:04Z Since the 2000s, a change in the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic resulting in more frequent blocking events has favoured warmer and sunnier weather conditions over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in summer, enhancing the melt increase. This circulation change is not represented by general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), which do not predict any circulation change for the next century over the North Atlantic. The goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of an atmospheric circulation change (as currently observed) on projections of the future GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). We compare GrIS SMB estimates simulated by the regional climate model MAR forced by perturbed reanalysis (ERA-Interim with a temperature correction of +1 , +1.5 , and +2 ∘ C at the MAR lateral boundaries) over 1980–2016 to projections of the future GrIS SMB from MAR simulations forced by three GCMs over selected periods for which a similar temperature increase of +1 , +1.5 , and +2 ∘ C is projected by the GCMs in comparison to 1980–1999. Mean SMB anomalies produced with perturbed reanalysis over the climatologically stable period 1980–1999 are similar to those produced with MAR forced by GCMs over future periods characterised by a similar warming over Greenland. However, over the 2 last decades (2000–2016) when an increase in the frequency of blocking events has been observed in summer, MAR forced by perturbed reanalysis suggests that the SMB decrease could be amplified by a factor of 2 if such atmospheric conditions persist compared to projections forced by GCMs for the same temperature increase but without any circulation change. Text Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Greenland The Cryosphere 12 11 3409 3418 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Since the 2000s, a change in the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic resulting in more frequent blocking events has favoured warmer and sunnier weather conditions over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in summer, enhancing the melt increase. This circulation change is not represented by general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), which do not predict any circulation change for the next century over the North Atlantic. The goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of an atmospheric circulation change (as currently observed) on projections of the future GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). We compare GrIS SMB estimates simulated by the regional climate model MAR forced by perturbed reanalysis (ERA-Interim with a temperature correction of +1 , +1.5 , and +2 ∘ C at the MAR lateral boundaries) over 1980–2016 to projections of the future GrIS SMB from MAR simulations forced by three GCMs over selected periods for which a similar temperature increase of +1 , +1.5 , and +2 ∘ C is projected by the GCMs in comparison to 1980–1999. Mean SMB anomalies produced with perturbed reanalysis over the climatologically stable period 1980–1999 are similar to those produced with MAR forced by GCMs over future periods characterised by a similar warming over Greenland. However, over the 2 last decades (2000–2016) when an increase in the frequency of blocking events has been observed in summer, MAR forced by perturbed reanalysis suggests that the SMB decrease could be amplified by a factor of 2 if such atmospheric conditions persist compared to projections forced by GCMs for the same temperature increase but without any circulation change. |
format |
Text |
author |
Delhasse, Alison Fettweis, Xavier Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Agosta, Cécile |
spellingShingle |
Delhasse, Alison Fettweis, Xavier Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Agosta, Cécile Brief communication: Impact of the recent atmospheric circulation change in summer on the future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
author_facet |
Delhasse, Alison Fettweis, Xavier Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Agosta, Cécile |
author_sort |
Delhasse, Alison |
title |
Brief communication: Impact of the recent atmospheric circulation change in summer on the future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_short |
Brief communication: Impact of the recent atmospheric circulation change in summer on the future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_full |
Brief communication: Impact of the recent atmospheric circulation change in summer on the future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_fullStr |
Brief communication: Impact of the recent atmospheric circulation change in summer on the future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Brief communication: Impact of the recent atmospheric circulation change in summer on the future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_sort |
brief communication: impact of the recent atmospheric circulation change in summer on the future surface mass balance of the greenland ice sheet |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3409-2018 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/3409/2018/ |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic |
op_source |
eISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-12-3409-2018 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/3409/2018/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3409-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
3409 |
op_container_end_page |
3418 |
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1766016991932448768 |