Brief communication: Solar radiation management not as effective as CO2 mitigation for Arctic sea ice loss in hitting the 1.5 and 2 °C COP climate targets

• Published in: The Cryosphere
• Main Authors: Ridley, Jeff K., Blockley, Edward W.
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2018
• Subjects: Arctic; Global warming; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3355-2018; https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/3355/2018/

An assessment of the risks of a seasonally ice-free Arctic at 1.5 and 2.0 ∘ C global warming above pre-industrial levels is undertaken using model simulations with solar radiation management to achieve the desired temperatures. An ensemble of the CMIP5 model HadGEM2-ES uses solar radiation management (SRM) to achieve the desired global mean temperatures. It is found that the risk for a seasonally ice-free Arctic is reduced for a target temperature for global warming of 1.5 ∘ C (0.1 %) compared to 2.0 ∘ C (42 %), in general agreement with other methodologies. The SRM produced more ice loss, for a specified global temperature, than for CO 2 mitigation scenarios, as SRM produces a higher polar amplification.