How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent?
This paper presents an investigation of the robustness of correlations between characteristics of Arctic summer cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent. A cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is run for output from 100-year coupled climate model simulations at two resolutions and for 3...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/11/3023/2017/ |
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tc60267 2023-05-15T14:47:52+02:00 How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? Rae, Jamie G. L. Todd, Alexander D. Blockley, Edward W. Ridley, Jeff K. 2018-09-27 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/11/3023/2017/ eng eng doi:10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/11/3023/2017/ eISSN: 1994-0424 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 2020-07-20T16:23:29Z This paper presents an investigation of the robustness of correlations between characteristics of Arctic summer cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent. A cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is run for output from 100-year coupled climate model simulations at two resolutions and for 30 years of reanalysis data, using two different tracking variables (mean sea-level pressure, MSLP; and 850 hPa vorticity) for identification of the cyclones. The influence of the tracking variable, the spatial resolution of the model, and spatial and temporal sampling on the correlations is then explored. We conclude that the correlations obtained depend on all of these factors and that care should be taken when interpreting the results of such analyses. Previous studies of this type have used around 30 years of reanalysis and observational data, analysed with a single tracking variable. Our results therefore cast some doubt on the conclusions drawn in those studies. Text Arctic Sea ice Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic The Cryosphere 11 6 3023 3034 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
description |
This paper presents an investigation of the robustness of correlations between characteristics of Arctic summer cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent. A cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is run for output from 100-year coupled climate model simulations at two resolutions and for 30 years of reanalysis data, using two different tracking variables (mean sea-level pressure, MSLP; and 850 hPa vorticity) for identification of the cyclones. The influence of the tracking variable, the spatial resolution of the model, and spatial and temporal sampling on the correlations is then explored. We conclude that the correlations obtained depend on all of these factors and that care should be taken when interpreting the results of such analyses. Previous studies of this type have used around 30 years of reanalysis and observational data, analysed with a single tracking variable. Our results therefore cast some doubt on the conclusions drawn in those studies. |
format |
Text |
author |
Rae, Jamie G. L. Todd, Alexander D. Blockley, Edward W. Ridley, Jeff K. |
spellingShingle |
Rae, Jamie G. L. Todd, Alexander D. Blockley, Edward W. Ridley, Jeff K. How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
author_facet |
Rae, Jamie G. L. Todd, Alexander D. Blockley, Edward W. Ridley, Jeff K. |
author_sort |
Rae, Jamie G. L. |
title |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_short |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_full |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_fullStr |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_full_unstemmed |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_sort |
how much should we believe correlations between arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/11/3023/2017/ |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
eISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/11/3023/2017/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
3023 |
op_container_end_page |
3034 |
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1766318974831689728 |