Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland
Permafrost is a widespread phenomenon in mountainous regions of the world such as the European Alps. Many important topics such as the future evolution of permafrost related to climate change and the detection of permafrost related to potential natural hazards sites are of major concern to our socie...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/10/2693/2016/ |
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tc31362 2023-05-15T17:55:41+02:00 Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland Marmy, Antoine Rajczak, Jan Delaloye, Reynald Hilbich, Christin Hoelzle, Martin Kotlarski, Sven Lambiel, Christophe Noetzli, Jeannette Phillips, Marcia Salzmann, Nadine Staub, Benno Hauck, Christian 2018-09-27 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/10/2693/2016/ eng eng doi:10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/10/2693/2016/ eISSN: 1994-0424 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016 2020-07-20T16:23:55Z Permafrost is a widespread phenomenon in mountainous regions of the world such as the European Alps. Many important topics such as the future evolution of permafrost related to climate change and the detection of permafrost related to potential natural hazards sites are of major concern to our society. Numerical permafrost models are the only tools which allow for the projection of the future evolution of permafrost. Due to the complexity of the processes involved and the heterogeneity of Alpine terrain, models must be carefully calibrated, and results should be compared with observations at the site (borehole) scale. However, for large-scale applications, a site-specific model calibration for a multitude of grid points would be very time-consuming. To tackle this issue, this study presents a semi-automated calibration method using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) as implemented in a 1-D soil model (CoupModel) and applies it to six permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps. We show that this semi-automated calibration method is able to accurately reproduce the main thermal condition characteristics with some limitations at sites with unique conditions such as 3-D air or water circulation, which have to be calibrated manually. The calibration obtained was used for global and regional climate model (GCM/RCM)-based long-term climate projections under the A1B climate scenario (EU-ENSEMBLES project) specifically downscaled at each borehole site. The projection shows general permafrost degradation with thawing at 10 m, even partially reaching 20 m depth by the end of the century, but with different timing among the sites and with partly considerable uncertainties due to the spread of the applied climatic forcing. Text permafrost Copernicus Publications: E-Journals The Cryosphere 10 6 2693 2719 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Permafrost is a widespread phenomenon in mountainous regions of the world such as the European Alps. Many important topics such as the future evolution of permafrost related to climate change and the detection of permafrost related to potential natural hazards sites are of major concern to our society. Numerical permafrost models are the only tools which allow for the projection of the future evolution of permafrost. Due to the complexity of the processes involved and the heterogeneity of Alpine terrain, models must be carefully calibrated, and results should be compared with observations at the site (borehole) scale. However, for large-scale applications, a site-specific model calibration for a multitude of grid points would be very time-consuming. To tackle this issue, this study presents a semi-automated calibration method using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) as implemented in a 1-D soil model (CoupModel) and applies it to six permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps. We show that this semi-automated calibration method is able to accurately reproduce the main thermal condition characteristics with some limitations at sites with unique conditions such as 3-D air or water circulation, which have to be calibrated manually. The calibration obtained was used for global and regional climate model (GCM/RCM)-based long-term climate projections under the A1B climate scenario (EU-ENSEMBLES project) specifically downscaled at each borehole site. The projection shows general permafrost degradation with thawing at 10 m, even partially reaching 20 m depth by the end of the century, but with different timing among the sites and with partly considerable uncertainties due to the spread of the applied climatic forcing. |
format |
Text |
author |
Marmy, Antoine Rajczak, Jan Delaloye, Reynald Hilbich, Christin Hoelzle, Martin Kotlarski, Sven Lambiel, Christophe Noetzli, Jeannette Phillips, Marcia Salzmann, Nadine Staub, Benno Hauck, Christian |
spellingShingle |
Marmy, Antoine Rajczak, Jan Delaloye, Reynald Hilbich, Christin Hoelzle, Martin Kotlarski, Sven Lambiel, Christophe Noetzli, Jeannette Phillips, Marcia Salzmann, Nadine Staub, Benno Hauck, Christian Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland |
author_facet |
Marmy, Antoine Rajczak, Jan Delaloye, Reynald Hilbich, Christin Hoelzle, Martin Kotlarski, Sven Lambiel, Christophe Noetzli, Jeannette Phillips, Marcia Salzmann, Nadine Staub, Benno Hauck, Christian |
author_sort |
Marmy, Antoine |
title |
Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland |
title_short |
Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland |
title_full |
Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland |
title_fullStr |
Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland |
title_sort |
semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in switzerland |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/10/2693/2016/ |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
eISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/10/2693/2016/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2693 |
op_container_end_page |
2719 |
_version_ |
1766163662100234240 |