Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios
The Antarctic firn layer provides pore space in which an estimated 94 % to 96 % of the surface melt refreezes or is retained as liquid water. Future depletion of firn pore space by increased surface melt, densification and formation of low-permeability ice slabs can potentially lead to meltwater pon...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tc115138 2024-06-23T07:47:29+00:00 Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios Veldhuijsen, Sanne B. M. Berg, Willem Jan Kuipers Munneke, Peter Broeke, Michiel R. 2024-04-29 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1983/2024/ eng eng doi:10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1983/2024/ eISSN: 1994-0424 Text 2024 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024 2024-06-13T01:24:45Z The Antarctic firn layer provides pore space in which an estimated 94 % to 96 % of the surface melt refreezes or is retained as liquid water. Future depletion of firn pore space by increased surface melt, densification and formation of low-permeability ice slabs can potentially lead to meltwater ponding, hydrofracturing and ice-shelf disintegration. Here, we investigate the 21st-century evolution of total firn air content (FAC) and accessible FAC (i.e. the pore space that meltwater can reach) across Antarctic ice shelves. We use the semi-empirical IMAU Firn Densification Model (IMAU-FDM) with an updated dynamical densification expression to cope with changing climate forcing. The firn model is forced by general circulation model output of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) for three climate emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), dynamically downscaled to a 27 km horizontal resolution by the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model version 2.3p2 (RACMO2.3p2). To estimate accessible FAC, we prescribe a relationship between ice-slab thickness and permeability. In our simulations, ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total FAC depletion ( > 50 % decrease by 2100), even for low-emission (SSP1-2.6) and intermediate-emission (SSP2-4.5) scenarios. In the high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario in particular, the formation of ice slabs further reduces accessible FAC on ice shelves with low accumulation rates (current rates of < 500 mm w . e . yr - 1 <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="61pt" height="15pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="b4c8699b596706f7bf9110e998ba2dca"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="tc-18-1983-2024-ie00001.svg" width="61pt" height="15pt" src="tc-18-1983-2024-ie00001.png"/> </svg:svg> ), including many East Antarctic ice shelves and the Filchner–Ronne, Ross, Pine Island and Larsen C ice shelves. These ... Text Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Dronning Maud Land Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Dronning Maud Land Roi Baudouin ENVELOPE(24.461,24.461,-70.438,-70.438) The Antarctic The Cryosphere 18 4 1983 1999 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
The Antarctic firn layer provides pore space in which an estimated 94 % to 96 % of the surface melt refreezes or is retained as liquid water. Future depletion of firn pore space by increased surface melt, densification and formation of low-permeability ice slabs can potentially lead to meltwater ponding, hydrofracturing and ice-shelf disintegration. Here, we investigate the 21st-century evolution of total firn air content (FAC) and accessible FAC (i.e. the pore space that meltwater can reach) across Antarctic ice shelves. We use the semi-empirical IMAU Firn Densification Model (IMAU-FDM) with an updated dynamical densification expression to cope with changing climate forcing. The firn model is forced by general circulation model output of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) for three climate emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), dynamically downscaled to a 27 km horizontal resolution by the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model version 2.3p2 (RACMO2.3p2). To estimate accessible FAC, we prescribe a relationship between ice-slab thickness and permeability. In our simulations, ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total FAC depletion ( > 50 % decrease by 2100), even for low-emission (SSP1-2.6) and intermediate-emission (SSP2-4.5) scenarios. In the high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario in particular, the formation of ice slabs further reduces accessible FAC on ice shelves with low accumulation rates (current rates of < 500 mm w . e . yr - 1 <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="61pt" height="15pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="b4c8699b596706f7bf9110e998ba2dca"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="tc-18-1983-2024-ie00001.svg" width="61pt" height="15pt" src="tc-18-1983-2024-ie00001.png"/> </svg:svg> ), including many East Antarctic ice shelves and the Filchner–Ronne, Ross, Pine Island and Larsen C ice shelves. These ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Veldhuijsen, Sanne B. M. Berg, Willem Jan Kuipers Munneke, Peter Broeke, Michiel R. |
spellingShingle |
Veldhuijsen, Sanne B. M. Berg, Willem Jan Kuipers Munneke, Peter Broeke, Michiel R. Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios |
author_facet |
Veldhuijsen, Sanne B. M. Berg, Willem Jan Kuipers Munneke, Peter Broeke, Michiel R. |
author_sort |
Veldhuijsen, Sanne B. M. |
title |
Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios |
title_short |
Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios |
title_full |
Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios |
title_sort |
firn air content changes on antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1983/2024/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(24.461,24.461,-70.438,-70.438) |
geographic |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Dronning Maud Land Roi Baudouin The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Dronning Maud Land Roi Baudouin The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Dronning Maud Land Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Dronning Maud Land Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
op_source |
eISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1983/2024/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1983 |
op_container_end_page |
1999 |
_version_ |
1802651589357338624 |