Assessment of Arctic seasonal snow cover rates of change
Arctic snow cover extent (SCE) trends and rates of change reported across recent climate assessments vary due to the time period of available data, the selection of snow products, and methodological considerations. While all reported trends are strongly negative during spring, more uncertainty exist...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:tc106892 2023-05-15T14:54:21+02:00 Assessment of Arctic seasonal snow cover rates of change Derksen, Chris Mudryk, Lawrence 2023-04-03 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1431-2023 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/1431/2023/ eng eng doi:10.5194/tc-17-1431-2023 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/1431/2023/ eISSN: 1994-0424 Text 2023 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1431-2023 2023-04-10T16:23:12Z Arctic snow cover extent (SCE) trends and rates of change reported across recent climate assessments vary due to the time period of available data, the selection of snow products, and methodological considerations. While all reported trends are strongly negative during spring, more uncertainty exists in autumn. Motivated to increase the confidence in SCE trends reported in climate assessments, we quantify the impact of (1) year-over-year increases in time series length over the past 2 decades, (2) the choice of reference period, (3) the application of a statistical methodology to improve inter-dataset agreement, (4) the dataset ensemble size, and (5) product version changes. Results show that the rate of change during May and June has remained consistent over the past decade as time series length has increased and is largely insensitive to the choice of reference period. Although new product versions have increased spatial resolution, use more advanced reanalysis meteorology to force snow models, and include improved remote sensing retrieval algorithms, these enhancements do not result in any notable changes in the observed rate of Arctic SCE change in any month compared to a baseline set of older products. The most impactful analysis decision involves the scaling of dataset climatologies using an updated version of the NOAA snow chart climate data record as the baseline. While minor for most months, this adjustment can influence the calculated rate of change for June by a factor of 2 relative to different climatological baselines. Text Arctic Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic The Cryosphere 17 4 1431 1443 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
description |
Arctic snow cover extent (SCE) trends and rates of change reported across recent climate assessments vary due to the time period of available data, the selection of snow products, and methodological considerations. While all reported trends are strongly negative during spring, more uncertainty exists in autumn. Motivated to increase the confidence in SCE trends reported in climate assessments, we quantify the impact of (1) year-over-year increases in time series length over the past 2 decades, (2) the choice of reference period, (3) the application of a statistical methodology to improve inter-dataset agreement, (4) the dataset ensemble size, and (5) product version changes. Results show that the rate of change during May and June has remained consistent over the past decade as time series length has increased and is largely insensitive to the choice of reference period. Although new product versions have increased spatial resolution, use more advanced reanalysis meteorology to force snow models, and include improved remote sensing retrieval algorithms, these enhancements do not result in any notable changes in the observed rate of Arctic SCE change in any month compared to a baseline set of older products. The most impactful analysis decision involves the scaling of dataset climatologies using an updated version of the NOAA snow chart climate data record as the baseline. While minor for most months, this adjustment can influence the calculated rate of change for June by a factor of 2 relative to different climatological baselines. |
format |
Text |
author |
Derksen, Chris Mudryk, Lawrence |
spellingShingle |
Derksen, Chris Mudryk, Lawrence Assessment of Arctic seasonal snow cover rates of change |
author_facet |
Derksen, Chris Mudryk, Lawrence |
author_sort |
Derksen, Chris |
title |
Assessment of Arctic seasonal snow cover rates of change |
title_short |
Assessment of Arctic seasonal snow cover rates of change |
title_full |
Assessment of Arctic seasonal snow cover rates of change |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of Arctic seasonal snow cover rates of change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of Arctic seasonal snow cover rates of change |
title_sort |
assessment of arctic seasonal snow cover rates of change |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1431-2023 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/1431/2023/ |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
eISSN: 1994-0424 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-17-1431-2023 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/1431/2023/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1431-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
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17 |
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4 |
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1431 |
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1443 |
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