Forecasting the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic: an ensemble approach, with uncertainties based on data from operational ocean forecasting systems
Operational systems operated by Mercator Ocean provide daily ocean forecasts, and combining these forecasts we can produce ensemble forecast and uncertainty estimates. This study focuses on the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic near the Porcupine Abyssal Plain for May 2013. This period is...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:os25243 2023-05-15T17:41:13+02:00 Forecasting the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic: an ensemble approach, with uncertainties based on data from operational ocean forecasting systems Drillet, Y. Lellouche, J. M. Levier, B. Drévillon, M. Galloudec, O. Reffray, G. Regnier, C. Greiner, E. Clavier, M. 2018-01-15 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1013-2014 https://os.copernicus.org/articles/10/1013/2014/ eng eng doi:10.5194/os-10-1013-2014 https://os.copernicus.org/articles/10/1013/2014/ eISSN: 1812-0792 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1013-2014 2020-07-20T16:24:50Z Operational systems operated by Mercator Ocean provide daily ocean forecasts, and combining these forecasts we can produce ensemble forecast and uncertainty estimates. This study focuses on the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic near the Porcupine Abyssal Plain for May 2013. This period is of interest for several reasons: (1) four Mercator Ocean operational systems provide daily forecasts at a horizontal resolution of 1/4, 1/12 and 1/36° with different physics; (2) glider deployment under the OSMOSIS project provides observation of the changes in mixed-layer depth; (3) the ocean stratifies in May, but mixing events induced by gale force wind are observed and forecast by the systems. Statistical scores and forecast error quantification for each system and for the combined products are presented. Skill scores indicate that forecasts are consistently better than persistence, and temporal correlations between forecast and observations are greater than 0.8 even for the 4-day forecast. The impact of atmospheric forecast error, and for the wind field in particular (miss or time delay of a wind burst forecast), is also quantified in terms of occurrence and intensity of mixing or stratification events. Text Northeast Atlantic Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Ocean Science 10 6 1013 1029 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Operational systems operated by Mercator Ocean provide daily ocean forecasts, and combining these forecasts we can produce ensemble forecast and uncertainty estimates. This study focuses on the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic near the Porcupine Abyssal Plain for May 2013. This period is of interest for several reasons: (1) four Mercator Ocean operational systems provide daily forecasts at a horizontal resolution of 1/4, 1/12 and 1/36° with different physics; (2) glider deployment under the OSMOSIS project provides observation of the changes in mixed-layer depth; (3) the ocean stratifies in May, but mixing events induced by gale force wind are observed and forecast by the systems. Statistical scores and forecast error quantification for each system and for the combined products are presented. Skill scores indicate that forecasts are consistently better than persistence, and temporal correlations between forecast and observations are greater than 0.8 even for the 4-day forecast. The impact of atmospheric forecast error, and for the wind field in particular (miss or time delay of a wind burst forecast), is also quantified in terms of occurrence and intensity of mixing or stratification events. |
format |
Text |
author |
Drillet, Y. Lellouche, J. M. Levier, B. Drévillon, M. Galloudec, O. Reffray, G. Regnier, C. Greiner, E. Clavier, M. |
spellingShingle |
Drillet, Y. Lellouche, J. M. Levier, B. Drévillon, M. Galloudec, O. Reffray, G. Regnier, C. Greiner, E. Clavier, M. Forecasting the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic: an ensemble approach, with uncertainties based on data from operational ocean forecasting systems |
author_facet |
Drillet, Y. Lellouche, J. M. Levier, B. Drévillon, M. Galloudec, O. Reffray, G. Regnier, C. Greiner, E. Clavier, M. |
author_sort |
Drillet, Y. |
title |
Forecasting the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic: an ensemble approach, with uncertainties based on data from operational ocean forecasting systems |
title_short |
Forecasting the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic: an ensemble approach, with uncertainties based on data from operational ocean forecasting systems |
title_full |
Forecasting the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic: an ensemble approach, with uncertainties based on data from operational ocean forecasting systems |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic: an ensemble approach, with uncertainties based on data from operational ocean forecasting systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic: an ensemble approach, with uncertainties based on data from operational ocean forecasting systems |
title_sort |
forecasting the mixed-layer depth in the northeast atlantic: an ensemble approach, with uncertainties based on data from operational ocean forecasting systems |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1013-2014 https://os.copernicus.org/articles/10/1013/2014/ |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic |
op_source |
eISSN: 1812-0792 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/os-10-1013-2014 https://os.copernicus.org/articles/10/1013/2014/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1013-2014 |
container_title |
Ocean Science |
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10 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1013 |
op_container_end_page |
1029 |
_version_ |
1766142649997197312 |