Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be one of the most dangerous climate tipping elements. The salt–advection feedback plays an important role in AMOC tipping behaviour, and its strength is strongly connected to the freshwater transport carried by the AMOC at 34°...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:os113008 2024-06-23T07:54:51+00:00 Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport Westen, René M. Dijkstra, Henk A. 2024-04-12 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024 https://os.copernicus.org/articles/20/549/2024/ eng eng doi:10.5194/os-20-549-2024 https://os.copernicus.org/articles/20/549/2024/ eISSN: 1812-0792 Text 2024 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024 2024-06-13T01:25:01Z The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be one of the most dangerous climate tipping elements. The salt–advection feedback plays an important role in AMOC tipping behaviour, and its strength is strongly connected to the freshwater transport carried by the AMOC at 34° S, below indicated by F ovS . Available observations have indicated that F ovS has a negative sign for the present-day AMOC. However, most climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP, phase 3 and phase 5) have an incorrect F ovS sign. Here, we analyse a high-resolution and a low-resolution version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to identify the origin of these F ovS biases. Both CESM versions are initialised from an observed ocean state, and F ovS biases quickly develop under fixed pre-industrial forcing conditions. The most important model bias is a too fresh Atlantic Surface Water, which arises from deficiencies in the surface freshwater flux over the Indian Ocean. The second largest bias is a too saline North Atlantic Deep Water and arises through deficiencies in the freshwater flux over the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre region. Climate change scenarios branched from the pre-industrial simulations have an incorrect F ovS upon initialisation. Most CMIP phase 6 models have similar biases to those in the CESM. Due to the biases, the value of F ovS is not in agreement with available observations, and the strength of the salt advection feedback is underestimated. Values of F ovS are projected to decrease under climate change, and their response is also dependent on the various model biases. To better project future AMOC behaviour, an urgent effort is needed to reduce biases in the atmospheric components of current climate models. Text North Atlantic Deep Water North Atlantic Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Indian Ocean Science 20 2 549 567 |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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English |
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be one of the most dangerous climate tipping elements. The salt–advection feedback plays an important role in AMOC tipping behaviour, and its strength is strongly connected to the freshwater transport carried by the AMOC at 34° S, below indicated by F ovS . Available observations have indicated that F ovS has a negative sign for the present-day AMOC. However, most climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP, phase 3 and phase 5) have an incorrect F ovS sign. Here, we analyse a high-resolution and a low-resolution version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to identify the origin of these F ovS biases. Both CESM versions are initialised from an observed ocean state, and F ovS biases quickly develop under fixed pre-industrial forcing conditions. The most important model bias is a too fresh Atlantic Surface Water, which arises from deficiencies in the surface freshwater flux over the Indian Ocean. The second largest bias is a too saline North Atlantic Deep Water and arises through deficiencies in the freshwater flux over the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre region. Climate change scenarios branched from the pre-industrial simulations have an incorrect F ovS upon initialisation. Most CMIP phase 6 models have similar biases to those in the CESM. Due to the biases, the value of F ovS is not in agreement with available observations, and the strength of the salt advection feedback is underestimated. Values of F ovS are projected to decrease under climate change, and their response is also dependent on the various model biases. To better project future AMOC behaviour, an urgent effort is needed to reduce biases in the atmospheric components of current climate models. |
format |
Text |
author |
Westen, René M. Dijkstra, Henk A. |
spellingShingle |
Westen, René M. Dijkstra, Henk A. Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport |
author_facet |
Westen, René M. Dijkstra, Henk A. |
author_sort |
Westen, René M. |
title |
Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport |
title_short |
Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport |
title_full |
Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport |
title_fullStr |
Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport |
title_full_unstemmed |
Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport |
title_sort |
persistent climate model biases in the atlantic ocean's freshwater transport |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024 https://os.copernicus.org/articles/20/549/2024/ |
geographic |
Indian |
geographic_facet |
Indian |
genre |
North Atlantic Deep Water North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Deep Water North Atlantic |
op_source |
eISSN: 1812-0792 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/os-20-549-2024 https://os.copernicus.org/articles/20/549/2024/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024 |
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Ocean Science |
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20 |
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2 |
container_start_page |
549 |
op_container_end_page |
567 |
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1802647151600205824 |