An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point
Our recently developed tool, called Directed Affinity Segmentation (DAS), was originally designed for the data-driven discovery of coherent sets in fluidic systems. Here we interpret that it can also be used to indicate early warning signs of critical transitions in ice shelves as seen from remote s...
Published in: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:npg86420 2023-05-15T13:31:40+02:00 An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point AlMomani, Abd AlRahman Bollt, Erik 2021-03-03 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-153-2021 https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/28/153/2021/ eng eng doi:10.5194/npg-28-153-2021 https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/28/153/2021/ eISSN: 1607-7946 Text 2021 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-153-2021 2021-03-08T17:22:13Z Our recently developed tool, called Directed Affinity Segmentation (DAS), was originally designed for the data-driven discovery of coherent sets in fluidic systems. Here we interpret that it can also be used to indicate early warning signs of critical transitions in ice shelves as seen from remote sensing data. We apply a directed spectral clustering methodology, including an asymmetric affinity matrix and the associated directed graph Laplacian, to reprocess the ice velocity data and remote sensing satellite images of the Larsen C ice shelf. Our tool has enabled the simulated prediction of historical events from historical data and fault lines responsible for the critical transitions leading to the breakup of the Larsen C ice shelf crack, which resulted in the A-68 iceberg. Such benchmarking of methods, using data from the past to forecast events that are now also in the past, is sometimes called post-casting, analogous to forecasting into the future. Our method indicated the coming crisis months before the actual occurrence. Text Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Antarctic The Antarctic Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 28 1 153 166 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Our recently developed tool, called Directed Affinity Segmentation (DAS), was originally designed for the data-driven discovery of coherent sets in fluidic systems. Here we interpret that it can also be used to indicate early warning signs of critical transitions in ice shelves as seen from remote sensing data. We apply a directed spectral clustering methodology, including an asymmetric affinity matrix and the associated directed graph Laplacian, to reprocess the ice velocity data and remote sensing satellite images of the Larsen C ice shelf. Our tool has enabled the simulated prediction of historical events from historical data and fault lines responsible for the critical transitions leading to the breakup of the Larsen C ice shelf crack, which resulted in the A-68 iceberg. Such benchmarking of methods, using data from the past to forecast events that are now also in the past, is sometimes called post-casting, analogous to forecasting into the future. Our method indicated the coming crisis months before the actual occurrence. |
format |
Text |
author |
AlMomani, Abd AlRahman Bollt, Erik |
spellingShingle |
AlMomani, Abd AlRahman Bollt, Erik An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point |
author_facet |
AlMomani, Abd AlRahman Bollt, Erik |
author_sort |
AlMomani, Abd AlRahman |
title |
An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point |
title_short |
An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point |
title_full |
An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point |
title_fullStr |
An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point |
title_full_unstemmed |
An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point |
title_sort |
early warning sign of critical transition in the antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-153-2021 https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/28/153/2021/ |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* |
op_source |
eISSN: 1607-7946 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/npg-28-153-2021 https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/28/153/2021/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-153-2021 |
container_title |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
container_volume |
28 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
153 |
op_container_end_page |
166 |
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1766020036708794368 |