Predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index based on fractal analyses and dynamic system theory
The predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, index is analysed from the point of view of different fractal concepts and dynamic system theory such as lacunarity, rescaled analysis (Hurst exponent) and reconstruction theorem (embedding and correlation dimensions, Kolmogorov entr...
Published in: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-93-2010 https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/17/93/2010/ |
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:npg419 2023-05-15T17:29:06+02:00 Predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index based on fractal analyses and dynamic system theory Martínez, M. D. Lana, X. Burgueño, A. Serra, C. 2018-01-15 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-93-2010 https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/17/93/2010/ eng eng doi:10.5194/npg-17-93-2010 https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/17/93/2010/ eISSN: 1607-7946 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-93-2010 2020-07-20T16:26:28Z The predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, index is analysed from the point of view of different fractal concepts and dynamic system theory such as lacunarity, rescaled analysis (Hurst exponent) and reconstruction theorem (embedding and correlation dimensions, Kolmogorov entropy and Lyapunov exponents). The main results point out evident signs of randomness and the necessity of stochastic models to represent time evolution of the NAO index. The results also show that the monthly NAO index behaves as a white-noise Gaussian process. The high minimum number of nonlinear equations needed to describe the physical process governing the NAO index fluctuations is evidence of its complexity. A notable predictive instability is indicated by the positive Lyapunov exponents. Besides corroborating the complex time behaviour of the NAO index, present results suggest that random Cantor sets would be an interesting tool to model lacunarity and time evolution of the NAO index. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 17 2 93 101 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
description |
The predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, index is analysed from the point of view of different fractal concepts and dynamic system theory such as lacunarity, rescaled analysis (Hurst exponent) and reconstruction theorem (embedding and correlation dimensions, Kolmogorov entropy and Lyapunov exponents). The main results point out evident signs of randomness and the necessity of stochastic models to represent time evolution of the NAO index. The results also show that the monthly NAO index behaves as a white-noise Gaussian process. The high minimum number of nonlinear equations needed to describe the physical process governing the NAO index fluctuations is evidence of its complexity. A notable predictive instability is indicated by the positive Lyapunov exponents. Besides corroborating the complex time behaviour of the NAO index, present results suggest that random Cantor sets would be an interesting tool to model lacunarity and time evolution of the NAO index. |
format |
Text |
author |
Martínez, M. D. Lana, X. Burgueño, A. Serra, C. |
spellingShingle |
Martínez, M. D. Lana, X. Burgueño, A. Serra, C. Predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index based on fractal analyses and dynamic system theory |
author_facet |
Martínez, M. D. Lana, X. Burgueño, A. Serra, C. |
author_sort |
Martínez, M. D. |
title |
Predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index based on fractal analyses and dynamic system theory |
title_short |
Predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index based on fractal analyses and dynamic system theory |
title_full |
Predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index based on fractal analyses and dynamic system theory |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index based on fractal analyses and dynamic system theory |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index based on fractal analyses and dynamic system theory |
title_sort |
predictability of the monthly north atlantic oscillation index based on fractal analyses and dynamic system theory |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-93-2010 https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/17/93/2010/ |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
eISSN: 1607-7946 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/npg-17-93-2010 https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/17/93/2010/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-93-2010 |
container_title |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
93 |
op_container_end_page |
101 |
_version_ |
1766122694997180416 |