Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere

A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. D...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Main Authors: Elsner, J. B., Tsonis, A. A.
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 2018
Subjects:
North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-1-41-1994
https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/1/41/1994/
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spelling ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:npg32826 2023-05-15T17:31:10+02:00 Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere Elsner, J. B. Tsonis, A. A. 2018-01-15 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-1-41-1994 https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/1/41/1994/ eng eng doi:10.5194/npg-1-41-1994 https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/1/41/1994/ eISSN: 1607-7946 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-1-41-1994 2020-07-20T16:28:16Z A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 1 1 41 44
institution Open Polar
collection Copernicus Publications: E-Journals
op_collection_id ftcopernicus
language English
description A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation.
format Text
author Elsner, J. B.
Tsonis, A. A.
spellingShingle Elsner, J. B.
Tsonis, A. A.
Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
author_facet Elsner, J. B.
Tsonis, A. A.
author_sort Elsner, J. B.
title Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
title_short Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
title_full Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
title_fullStr Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
title_full_unstemmed Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
title_sort empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
publishDate 2018
url https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-1-41-1994
https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/1/41/1994/
genre North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
genre_facet North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
op_source eISSN: 1607-7946
op_relation doi:10.5194/npg-1-41-1994
https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/1/41/1994/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-1-41-1994
container_title Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
container_volume 1
container_issue 1
container_start_page 41
op_container_end_page 44
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