Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. D...
Published in: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2018
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-1-41-1994 https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/1/41/1994/ |
Summary: | A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation. |
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