Present and future changes in winter climate indices relevant for access disruptions in Troms, northern Norway
A number of seaside communities in Troms, northern Norway, are vulnerable to sudden weather-induced access disruptions due to high-impact weather and dependency on one or few roads. In this paper we study changes in winter weather known to potentially cause access disruptions in Troms, for the prese...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:nhess77516 2023-05-15T17:43:21+02:00 Present and future changes in winter climate indices relevant for access disruptions in Troms, northern Norway Dyrrdal, Anita Verpe Isaksen, Ketil Jacobsen, Jens Kristian Steen Nilsen, Irene Brox 2020-06-30 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1847-2020 https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/1847/2020/ eng eng doi:10.5194/nhess-20-1847-2020 https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/1847/2020/ eISSN: 1684-9981 Text 2020 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1847-2020 2020-07-20T16:22:03Z A number of seaside communities in Troms, northern Norway, are vulnerable to sudden weather-induced access disruptions due to high-impact weather and dependency on one or few roads. In this paper we study changes in winter weather known to potentially cause access disruptions in Troms, for the present climate (1958–2017) and two future periods (2041–2070; 2071–2100). We focus on climate indices associated with snow avalanches and weather that may lead to for example slippery road conditions. In two focus areas, the most important results show larger snow amounts now compared to 50 years ago, and heavy snowfall has become more intense and frequent. This trend is expected to turn in the future, particularly at low elevations where snow cover during winter might become a rarity by 2100. Strong snow drift, due to a combination of snowfall and wind speed, has slightly increased in the two focus areas, but a strong decrease is expected in the future due to less snow. Events of heavy rain during winter are rather infrequent in the present winter climate of Troms, but we show that these events are likely to occur much more often in all regions in the future. Text Northern Norway Troms Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Norway Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20 6 1847 1865 |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
description |
A number of seaside communities in Troms, northern Norway, are vulnerable to sudden weather-induced access disruptions due to high-impact weather and dependency on one or few roads. In this paper we study changes in winter weather known to potentially cause access disruptions in Troms, for the present climate (1958–2017) and two future periods (2041–2070; 2071–2100). We focus on climate indices associated with snow avalanches and weather that may lead to for example slippery road conditions. In two focus areas, the most important results show larger snow amounts now compared to 50 years ago, and heavy snowfall has become more intense and frequent. This trend is expected to turn in the future, particularly at low elevations where snow cover during winter might become a rarity by 2100. Strong snow drift, due to a combination of snowfall and wind speed, has slightly increased in the two focus areas, but a strong decrease is expected in the future due to less snow. Events of heavy rain during winter are rather infrequent in the present winter climate of Troms, but we show that these events are likely to occur much more often in all regions in the future. |
format |
Text |
author |
Dyrrdal, Anita Verpe Isaksen, Ketil Jacobsen, Jens Kristian Steen Nilsen, Irene Brox |
spellingShingle |
Dyrrdal, Anita Verpe Isaksen, Ketil Jacobsen, Jens Kristian Steen Nilsen, Irene Brox Present and future changes in winter climate indices relevant for access disruptions in Troms, northern Norway |
author_facet |
Dyrrdal, Anita Verpe Isaksen, Ketil Jacobsen, Jens Kristian Steen Nilsen, Irene Brox |
author_sort |
Dyrrdal, Anita Verpe |
title |
Present and future changes in winter climate indices relevant for access disruptions in Troms, northern Norway |
title_short |
Present and future changes in winter climate indices relevant for access disruptions in Troms, northern Norway |
title_full |
Present and future changes in winter climate indices relevant for access disruptions in Troms, northern Norway |
title_fullStr |
Present and future changes in winter climate indices relevant for access disruptions in Troms, northern Norway |
title_full_unstemmed |
Present and future changes in winter climate indices relevant for access disruptions in Troms, northern Norway |
title_sort |
present and future changes in winter climate indices relevant for access disruptions in troms, northern norway |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1847-2020 https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/1847/2020/ |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
Northern Norway Troms |
genre_facet |
Northern Norway Troms |
op_source |
eISSN: 1684-9981 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/nhess-20-1847-2020 https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/1847/2020/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1847-2020 |
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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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20 |
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6 |
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1847 |
op_container_end_page |
1865 |
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1766145401122979840 |