Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden
As the risk of a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk....
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:nhess27893 2023-05-15T17:44:44+02:00 Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden Yang, W. Gardelin, M. Olsson, J. Bosshard, T. 2018-09-27 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/15/2037/2015/ eng eng doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/15/2037/2015/ eISSN: 1684-9981 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 2020-07-20T16:24:27Z As the risk of a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40) and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3). The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire. Text Northern Sweden Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15 9 2037 2057 |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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English |
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As the risk of a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40) and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3). The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire. |
format |
Text |
author |
Yang, W. Gardelin, M. Olsson, J. Bosshard, T. |
spellingShingle |
Yang, W. Gardelin, M. Olsson, J. Bosshard, T. Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
author_facet |
Yang, W. Gardelin, M. Olsson, J. Bosshard, T. |
author_sort |
Yang, W. |
title |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_short |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_full |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_fullStr |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_sort |
multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in sweden |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/15/2037/2015/ |
genre |
Northern Sweden |
genre_facet |
Northern Sweden |
op_source |
eISSN: 1684-9981 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/15/2037/2015/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 |
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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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15 |
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9 |
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2037 |
op_container_end_page |
2057 |
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1766147012306141184 |