Climate change will increase potential hydropower production in six Arctic Council member countries based on probabilistic hydrological projections
Potential hydropower production for 2020–2050 is calculated for 173 catchments located over the territories of Finland, Sweden, Norway, the Russian Federation, Canada and the United States. The results are based on hydrological river runoff projections assessed together with their exceedance probabi...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:hessd71300 2023-05-15T14:30:52+02:00 Climate change will increase potential hydropower production in six Arctic Council member countries based on probabilistic hydrological projections Shevnina, Elena Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina Haavisto, Riina Vihma, Timo Silaev, Andrey 2018-10-21 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-473 https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/hess-2018-473/ eng eng doi:10.5194/hess-2018-473 https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/hess-2018-473/ eISSN: 1607-7938 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-473 2019-12-24T09:49:53Z Potential hydropower production for 2020–2050 is calculated for 173 catchments located over the territories of Finland, Sweden, Norway, the Russian Federation, Canada and the United States. The results are based on hydrological river runoff projections assessed together with their exceedance probabilities. The annual runoff rate of particular exceedance probability was modelled with the Pearson type 3 distribution from three parameters (mean values, coefficient of variation and coefficient of skewness) simulated by the probabilistic hydrological MARcov Chain System (MARCS) model. The probabilistic projections of annual runoff were simulated from outputs of four global climate models under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The future potential hydropower production was evaluated based on annual runoff of low and high exceedance probabilities, and then aggregated at a country level. Under forcing from climate models that project a large increase in precipitation (CaEMS2 and MPI-EMS-LM), the expected potential hydropower production in the six countries increased by 14.0 to 18.0 % according to the projected values of annual runoff rate on exceedance probabilities of 10 and 90 %. This increase in water resources allows for 10–15 % more hydropower energy generation by rivers located in Russia, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. For the USA and Canada, the potential hydropower production is projected to increases by 4.0–9.0 %. Under forcing from climate models that project a smaller increase in precipitation (HadGEM2-ES and INMCM4), the increase of potential hydropower production by 2050 was predicted to be 2.1–8.4 % over the six countries considered. Text Arctic Council Arctic Climate change Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic Canada Norway |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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English |
description |
Potential hydropower production for 2020–2050 is calculated for 173 catchments located over the territories of Finland, Sweden, Norway, the Russian Federation, Canada and the United States. The results are based on hydrological river runoff projections assessed together with their exceedance probabilities. The annual runoff rate of particular exceedance probability was modelled with the Pearson type 3 distribution from three parameters (mean values, coefficient of variation and coefficient of skewness) simulated by the probabilistic hydrological MARcov Chain System (MARCS) model. The probabilistic projections of annual runoff were simulated from outputs of four global climate models under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The future potential hydropower production was evaluated based on annual runoff of low and high exceedance probabilities, and then aggregated at a country level. Under forcing from climate models that project a large increase in precipitation (CaEMS2 and MPI-EMS-LM), the expected potential hydropower production in the six countries increased by 14.0 to 18.0 % according to the projected values of annual runoff rate on exceedance probabilities of 10 and 90 %. This increase in water resources allows for 10–15 % more hydropower energy generation by rivers located in Russia, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. For the USA and Canada, the potential hydropower production is projected to increases by 4.0–9.0 %. Under forcing from climate models that project a smaller increase in precipitation (HadGEM2-ES and INMCM4), the increase of potential hydropower production by 2050 was predicted to be 2.1–8.4 % over the six countries considered. |
format |
Text |
author |
Shevnina, Elena Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina Haavisto, Riina Vihma, Timo Silaev, Andrey |
spellingShingle |
Shevnina, Elena Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina Haavisto, Riina Vihma, Timo Silaev, Andrey Climate change will increase potential hydropower production in six Arctic Council member countries based on probabilistic hydrological projections |
author_facet |
Shevnina, Elena Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina Haavisto, Riina Vihma, Timo Silaev, Andrey |
author_sort |
Shevnina, Elena |
title |
Climate change will increase potential hydropower production in six Arctic Council member countries based on probabilistic hydrological projections |
title_short |
Climate change will increase potential hydropower production in six Arctic Council member countries based on probabilistic hydrological projections |
title_full |
Climate change will increase potential hydropower production in six Arctic Council member countries based on probabilistic hydrological projections |
title_fullStr |
Climate change will increase potential hydropower production in six Arctic Council member countries based on probabilistic hydrological projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change will increase potential hydropower production in six Arctic Council member countries based on probabilistic hydrological projections |
title_sort |
climate change will increase potential hydropower production in six arctic council member countries based on probabilistic hydrological projections |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-473 https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/hess-2018-473/ |
geographic |
Arctic Canada Norway |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada Norway |
genre |
Arctic Council Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Council Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
eISSN: 1607-7938 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/hess-2018-473 https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/hess-2018-473/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-473 |
_version_ |
1766304661954887680 |