A tree-ring perspective on the past and future mass balance of a glacier in Tien Shan (Central Asia): an example from the Tuyuksu glacier, Kyrgyzstan
The Tien Shan glaciers, known as "Central Asia's Water Tower," have a direct influence on water resource management in downstream parched areas. The limited time periods of currently available observational climate datasets hamper an accurate examination of glacial changes in Central...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:hessd106511 2023-05-15T17:33:40+02:00 A tree-ring perspective on the past and future mass balance of a glacier in Tien Shan (Central Asia): an example from the Tuyuksu glacier, Kyrgyzstan Chen, Youping Opała-Owczarek, Magdalena Chen, Feng Owczarek, Piotr Zhang, Heli Wang, Shijie Hu, Mao Satylkanov, Rysbek Ermenbaev, Bakytbek Zulfiyor, Bakhtiyorov Shang, Huaming Zhang, Ruibo 2022-09-19 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-329 https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2022-329/ eng eng doi:10.5194/hess-2022-329 https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2022-329/ eISSN: 1607-7938 Text 2022 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-329 2022-09-26T16:22:42Z The Tien Shan glaciers, known as "Central Asia's Water Tower," have a direct influence on water resource management in downstream parched areas. The limited time periods of currently available observational climate datasets hamper an accurate examination of glacial changes in Central Asia in terms of long-term climate change implications. In this work, we analysed this change by combining tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Tuyuksu Glacier's high-altitude mass balance during the last 382 years with models of the future mass balance of this glacier until the year 2100 CE. The results show that mountain precipitation is an important force driving the cycles of the cryosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere in arid Central Asia. This driving force has broad coherence in spatiotemporal variation, with periodic cycles and decadal shifts caused by the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The multi-model mean in CMIP6 suggests a downward trend in glacier mass balance until 2100, but this trend will be moderated by increased precipitation. The findings of the study could help to explain how the glacial mass balance has evolved in the Tien Shan Mountains of Central Asia throughout time and its relationship to other geosphere layers. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
The Tien Shan glaciers, known as "Central Asia's Water Tower," have a direct influence on water resource management in downstream parched areas. The limited time periods of currently available observational climate datasets hamper an accurate examination of glacial changes in Central Asia in terms of long-term climate change implications. In this work, we analysed this change by combining tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Tuyuksu Glacier's high-altitude mass balance during the last 382 years with models of the future mass balance of this glacier until the year 2100 CE. The results show that mountain precipitation is an important force driving the cycles of the cryosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere in arid Central Asia. This driving force has broad coherence in spatiotemporal variation, with periodic cycles and decadal shifts caused by the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The multi-model mean in CMIP6 suggests a downward trend in glacier mass balance until 2100, but this trend will be moderated by increased precipitation. The findings of the study could help to explain how the glacial mass balance has evolved in the Tien Shan Mountains of Central Asia throughout time and its relationship to other geosphere layers. |
format |
Text |
author |
Chen, Youping Opała-Owczarek, Magdalena Chen, Feng Owczarek, Piotr Zhang, Heli Wang, Shijie Hu, Mao Satylkanov, Rysbek Ermenbaev, Bakytbek Zulfiyor, Bakhtiyorov Shang, Huaming Zhang, Ruibo |
spellingShingle |
Chen, Youping Opała-Owczarek, Magdalena Chen, Feng Owczarek, Piotr Zhang, Heli Wang, Shijie Hu, Mao Satylkanov, Rysbek Ermenbaev, Bakytbek Zulfiyor, Bakhtiyorov Shang, Huaming Zhang, Ruibo A tree-ring perspective on the past and future mass balance of a glacier in Tien Shan (Central Asia): an example from the Tuyuksu glacier, Kyrgyzstan |
author_facet |
Chen, Youping Opała-Owczarek, Magdalena Chen, Feng Owczarek, Piotr Zhang, Heli Wang, Shijie Hu, Mao Satylkanov, Rysbek Ermenbaev, Bakytbek Zulfiyor, Bakhtiyorov Shang, Huaming Zhang, Ruibo |
author_sort |
Chen, Youping |
title |
A tree-ring perspective on the past and future mass balance of a glacier in Tien Shan (Central Asia): an example from the Tuyuksu glacier, Kyrgyzstan |
title_short |
A tree-ring perspective on the past and future mass balance of a glacier in Tien Shan (Central Asia): an example from the Tuyuksu glacier, Kyrgyzstan |
title_full |
A tree-ring perspective on the past and future mass balance of a glacier in Tien Shan (Central Asia): an example from the Tuyuksu glacier, Kyrgyzstan |
title_fullStr |
A tree-ring perspective on the past and future mass balance of a glacier in Tien Shan (Central Asia): an example from the Tuyuksu glacier, Kyrgyzstan |
title_full_unstemmed |
A tree-ring perspective on the past and future mass balance of a glacier in Tien Shan (Central Asia): an example from the Tuyuksu glacier, Kyrgyzstan |
title_sort |
tree-ring perspective on the past and future mass balance of a glacier in tien shan (central asia): an example from the tuyuksu glacier, kyrgyzstan |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-329 https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2022-329/ |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
eISSN: 1607-7938 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/hess-2022-329 https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2022-329/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-329 |
_version_ |
1766132248254349312 |