A summer climate regime over Europe modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation
Recent summer heat waves in Europe were found to be preceded by precipitation deficits in winter. Numerical studies suggest that these phenomena are dynamically linked by land-atmosphere interactions. However, there exists as yet no complete observational evidence that connects summer climate variab...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:hess8196 2023-05-15T17:30:35+02:00 A summer climate regime over Europe modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation Wang, G. Dolman, A. J. Alessandri, A. 2018-09-27 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-57-2011 https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/57/2011/ eng eng doi:10.5194/hess-15-57-2011 https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/57/2011/ eISSN: 1607-7938 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-57-2011 2019-12-24T09:57:04Z Recent summer heat waves in Europe were found to be preceded by precipitation deficits in winter. Numerical studies suggest that these phenomena are dynamically linked by land-atmosphere interactions. However, there exists as yet no complete observational evidence that connects summer climate variability to winter precipitation and the relevant circulation patterns. In this paper, we investigate the functional responses of summer mean and maximum temperature (June–August, T mean and T max ) as well as soil moisture proxied by the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index ( scPDSI ) to preceding winter precipitation (January–March, P JFM ) for the period 1901–2005. All the analyzed summer fields show distinctive responses to P JFM over the Mediterranean. We estimate that 10 ~ 15% of the interannual variability of T max and T mean over the Mediterranean is statistically forced by P JFM . For the scPDSI this amounts to 10 ~ 25%. Further analysis shows that these responses are highly correlated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) regime over the Mediterranean. We suggest that NAO modulates European summer temperature by controlling winter precipitation that initializes the moisture states that subsequently interact with temperature. This picture of relations between European summer climate and NAO as well as winter precipitation suggests potential for improved seasonal prediction of summer climate for particular extreme events. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15 1 57 64 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
description |
Recent summer heat waves in Europe were found to be preceded by precipitation deficits in winter. Numerical studies suggest that these phenomena are dynamically linked by land-atmosphere interactions. However, there exists as yet no complete observational evidence that connects summer climate variability to winter precipitation and the relevant circulation patterns. In this paper, we investigate the functional responses of summer mean and maximum temperature (June–August, T mean and T max ) as well as soil moisture proxied by the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index ( scPDSI ) to preceding winter precipitation (January–March, P JFM ) for the period 1901–2005. All the analyzed summer fields show distinctive responses to P JFM over the Mediterranean. We estimate that 10 ~ 15% of the interannual variability of T max and T mean over the Mediterranean is statistically forced by P JFM . For the scPDSI this amounts to 10 ~ 25%. Further analysis shows that these responses are highly correlated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) regime over the Mediterranean. We suggest that NAO modulates European summer temperature by controlling winter precipitation that initializes the moisture states that subsequently interact with temperature. This picture of relations between European summer climate and NAO as well as winter precipitation suggests potential for improved seasonal prediction of summer climate for particular extreme events. |
format |
Text |
author |
Wang, G. Dolman, A. J. Alessandri, A. |
spellingShingle |
Wang, G. Dolman, A. J. Alessandri, A. A summer climate regime over Europe modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation |
author_facet |
Wang, G. Dolman, A. J. Alessandri, A. |
author_sort |
Wang, G. |
title |
A summer climate regime over Europe modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_short |
A summer climate regime over Europe modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_full |
A summer climate regime over Europe modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_fullStr |
A summer climate regime over Europe modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_full_unstemmed |
A summer climate regime over Europe modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_sort |
summer climate regime over europe modulated by the north atlantic oscillation |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-57-2011 https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/57/2011/ |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
eISSN: 1607-7938 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/hess-15-57-2011 https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/57/2011/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-57-2011 |
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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
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15 |
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1 |
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57 |
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64 |
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1766127437899366400 |