Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic

Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, road...

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Published in:Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Main Authors: Shevnina, Elena, Kourzeneva, Ekaterina, Kovalenko, Viktor, Vihma, Timo
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 2018
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017
https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/2559/2017/
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spelling ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:hess48370 2023-05-15T14:54:14+02:00 Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic Shevnina, Elena Kourzeneva, Ekaterina Kovalenko, Viktor Vihma, Timo 2018-09-27 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017 https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/2559/2017/ eng eng doi:10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017 https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/2559/2017/ eISSN: 1607-7938 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017 2019-12-24T09:51:26Z Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010–2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym. Text Arctic Climate change Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic Nadym ENVELOPE(72.517,72.517,65.533,65.533) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21 5 2559 2578
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collection Copernicus Publications: E-Journals
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language English
description Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010–2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym.
format Text
author Shevnina, Elena
Kourzeneva, Ekaterina
Kovalenko, Viktor
Vihma, Timo
spellingShingle Shevnina, Elena
Kourzeneva, Ekaterina
Kovalenko, Viktor
Vihma, Timo
Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
author_facet Shevnina, Elena
Kourzeneva, Ekaterina
Kovalenko, Viktor
Vihma, Timo
author_sort Shevnina, Elena
title Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
title_short Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
title_full Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
title_fullStr Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
title_full_unstemmed Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
title_sort assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the russian arctic
publishDate 2018
url https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017
https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/2559/2017/
long_lat ENVELOPE(72.517,72.517,65.533,65.533)
geographic Arctic
Nadym
geographic_facet Arctic
Nadym
genre Arctic
Climate change
genre_facet Arctic
Climate change
op_source eISSN: 1607-7938
op_relation doi:10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017
https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/2559/2017/
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container_title Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
container_volume 21
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