Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates
Recent evidences of the impact of persistent modes of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:hess19003 2023-05-15T15:10:50+02:00 Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates López, J. Francés, F. 2018-09-27 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3189-2013 https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/17/3189/2013/ eng eng doi:10.5194/hess-17-3189-2013 https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/17/3189/2013/ eISSN: 1607-7938 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3189-2013 2019-12-24T09:55:08Z Recent evidences of the impact of persistent modes of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed on the basis of a tool that enables us to address the modelling of non-stationary time series, namely, the "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS). Two approaches to non-stationary modelling in GAMLSS were applied to the annual maximum flood records of 20 continental Spanish rivers. The results of the first approach, in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of time only, show the presence of clear non-stationarities in the flood regime. In a second approach, the parameters of the flood distributions are modelled as functions of climate indices (Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation) and a reservoir index that is proposed in this paper. The results when incorporating external covariates in the study highlight the important role of interannual variability in low-frequency climate forcings when modelling the flood regime in continental Spanish rivers. Also, with this approach it is possible to properly introduce the impact on the flood regime of intensified reservoir regulation strategies. The inclusion of external covariates permits the use of these models as predictive tools. Finally, the application of non-stationary analysis shows that the differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents may be important over long periods of time. Text Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17 8 3189 3203 |
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English |
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Recent evidences of the impact of persistent modes of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed on the basis of a tool that enables us to address the modelling of non-stationary time series, namely, the "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS). Two approaches to non-stationary modelling in GAMLSS were applied to the annual maximum flood records of 20 continental Spanish rivers. The results of the first approach, in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of time only, show the presence of clear non-stationarities in the flood regime. In a second approach, the parameters of the flood distributions are modelled as functions of climate indices (Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation) and a reservoir index that is proposed in this paper. The results when incorporating external covariates in the study highlight the important role of interannual variability in low-frequency climate forcings when modelling the flood regime in continental Spanish rivers. Also, with this approach it is possible to properly introduce the impact on the flood regime of intensified reservoir regulation strategies. The inclusion of external covariates permits the use of these models as predictive tools. Finally, the application of non-stationary analysis shows that the differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents may be important over long periods of time. |
format |
Text |
author |
López, J. Francés, F. |
spellingShingle |
López, J. Francés, F. Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates |
author_facet |
López, J. Francés, F. |
author_sort |
López, J. |
title |
Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates |
title_short |
Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates |
title_full |
Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates |
title_fullStr |
Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates |
title_full_unstemmed |
Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates |
title_sort |
non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3189-2013 https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/17/3189/2013/ |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
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Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
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eISSN: 1607-7938 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/hess-17-3189-2013 https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/17/3189/2013/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3189-2013 |
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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
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17 |
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8 |
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3189 |
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3203 |
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1766341780040581120 |