Barents-2.5km v2.0: An operational data-assimilative coupled ocean and sea ice ensemble prediction model for the Barents Sea and Svalbard
An operational ocean and sea ice forecast model, Barents-2.5 , is implemented at MET Norway for short-term forecasting at the coast off Northern Norway, the Barents Sea, and waters around Svalbard. Primary forecast parameters are the sea ice concentration (SIC), sea surface temperature (SST), and oc...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:gmdd109428 2023-05-15T15:09:09+02:00 Barents-2.5km v2.0: An operational data-assimilative coupled ocean and sea ice ensemble prediction model for the Barents Sea and Svalbard Röhrs, Johannes Gusdal, Yvonne Rikardsen, Edel Duran Moro, Marina Brændshøi, Jostein Kristensen, Nils Melsom Fritzner, Sindre Wang, Keguang Sperrevik, Ann Kristin Idžanović, Martina Lavergne, Thomas Debernard, Jens Christensen, Kai H. 2023-03-06 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-20 https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2023-20/ eng eng doi:10.5194/gmd-2023-20 https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2023-20/ eISSN: 1991-9603 Text 2023 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-20 2023-03-13T17:23:11Z An operational ocean and sea ice forecast model, Barents-2.5 , is implemented at MET Norway for short-term forecasting at the coast off Northern Norway, the Barents Sea, and waters around Svalbard. Primary forecast parameters are the sea ice concentration (SIC), sea surface temperature (SST), and ocean currents. The model is also a substantial input for drift modeling of pollutants, ice berg, and in search-and-rescue pertinent applications in the Arctic domain. Barents-2.5 has recently been upgraded to include an Ensemble Prediction System with 24 daily realizations of the model state. SIC, SST and in-situ hydrography are constrained through the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation scheme executed in daily forecast cycles with lead time up to 66 hours. While the ocean circulation is not directly constrained by assimilation of ocean currents, the model ensemble represents the given uncertainty in the short-term current field by retaining the current state for each member throughout forecast cycles. Here we present the model setup and a validation in terms of SIC, SST and in-situ hydrography. The performance of the ensemble to represent the models uncertainty, and the performance of the EnKF to constrain the model state are discussed, in addition to the model’s forecast capabilities for SIC and SST. Text Arctic Barents Sea Northern Norway Sea ice Svalbard Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic Barents Sea Norway Svalbard |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
An operational ocean and sea ice forecast model, Barents-2.5 , is implemented at MET Norway for short-term forecasting at the coast off Northern Norway, the Barents Sea, and waters around Svalbard. Primary forecast parameters are the sea ice concentration (SIC), sea surface temperature (SST), and ocean currents. The model is also a substantial input for drift modeling of pollutants, ice berg, and in search-and-rescue pertinent applications in the Arctic domain. Barents-2.5 has recently been upgraded to include an Ensemble Prediction System with 24 daily realizations of the model state. SIC, SST and in-situ hydrography are constrained through the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation scheme executed in daily forecast cycles with lead time up to 66 hours. While the ocean circulation is not directly constrained by assimilation of ocean currents, the model ensemble represents the given uncertainty in the short-term current field by retaining the current state for each member throughout forecast cycles. Here we present the model setup and a validation in terms of SIC, SST and in-situ hydrography. The performance of the ensemble to represent the models uncertainty, and the performance of the EnKF to constrain the model state are discussed, in addition to the model’s forecast capabilities for SIC and SST. |
format |
Text |
author |
Röhrs, Johannes Gusdal, Yvonne Rikardsen, Edel Duran Moro, Marina Brændshøi, Jostein Kristensen, Nils Melsom Fritzner, Sindre Wang, Keguang Sperrevik, Ann Kristin Idžanović, Martina Lavergne, Thomas Debernard, Jens Christensen, Kai H. |
spellingShingle |
Röhrs, Johannes Gusdal, Yvonne Rikardsen, Edel Duran Moro, Marina Brændshøi, Jostein Kristensen, Nils Melsom Fritzner, Sindre Wang, Keguang Sperrevik, Ann Kristin Idžanović, Martina Lavergne, Thomas Debernard, Jens Christensen, Kai H. Barents-2.5km v2.0: An operational data-assimilative coupled ocean and sea ice ensemble prediction model for the Barents Sea and Svalbard |
author_facet |
Röhrs, Johannes Gusdal, Yvonne Rikardsen, Edel Duran Moro, Marina Brændshøi, Jostein Kristensen, Nils Melsom Fritzner, Sindre Wang, Keguang Sperrevik, Ann Kristin Idžanović, Martina Lavergne, Thomas Debernard, Jens Christensen, Kai H. |
author_sort |
Röhrs, Johannes |
title |
Barents-2.5km v2.0: An operational data-assimilative coupled ocean and sea ice ensemble prediction model for the Barents Sea and Svalbard |
title_short |
Barents-2.5km v2.0: An operational data-assimilative coupled ocean and sea ice ensemble prediction model for the Barents Sea and Svalbard |
title_full |
Barents-2.5km v2.0: An operational data-assimilative coupled ocean and sea ice ensemble prediction model for the Barents Sea and Svalbard |
title_fullStr |
Barents-2.5km v2.0: An operational data-assimilative coupled ocean and sea ice ensemble prediction model for the Barents Sea and Svalbard |
title_full_unstemmed |
Barents-2.5km v2.0: An operational data-assimilative coupled ocean and sea ice ensemble prediction model for the Barents Sea and Svalbard |
title_sort |
barents-2.5km v2.0: an operational data-assimilative coupled ocean and sea ice ensemble prediction model for the barents sea and svalbard |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-20 https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2023-20/ |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea Norway Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Norway Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Barents Sea Northern Norway Sea ice Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Northern Norway Sea ice Svalbard |
op_source |
eISSN: 1991-9603 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/gmd-2023-20 https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2023-20/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-20 |
_version_ |
1766340387915431936 |