An improved regional coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice simulation and prediction: a case study for 2018

The improved and updated Coupled Arctic Prediction System (CAPS) is evaluated using a set of Pan-Arctic prediction experiments for the year 2018. CAPS is built on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), the Community Ice CodE (CICE), and a data as...

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Published in:Geoscientific Model Development
Main Authors: Yang, Chao-Yuan, Liu, Jiping, Chen, Dake
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 2022
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1155/2022/
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spelling ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:gmd95825 2023-05-15T14:40:07+02:00 An improved regional coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice simulation and prediction: a case study for 2018 Yang, Chao-Yuan Liu, Jiping Chen, Dake 2022-02-08 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1155/2022/ eng eng doi:10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1155/2022/ eISSN: 1991-9603 Text 2022 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022 2022-02-14T17:22:14Z The improved and updated Coupled Arctic Prediction System (CAPS) is evaluated using a set of Pan-Arctic prediction experiments for the year 2018. CAPS is built on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), the Community Ice CodE (CICE), and a data assimilation based on the local error subspace transform Kalman filter. We analyze physical processes linking improved and changed physical parameterizations in WRF, ROMS, and CICE to changes in the simulated Arctic sea ice state. Our results show that the improved convection and boundary layer schemes in WRF result in an improved simulation of downward radiative fluxes and near-surface air temperature, which influences the predicted ice thickness. The changed tracer advection and vertical mixing schemes in ROMS reduce the bias in sea surface temperature and change ocean temperature and salinity structure in the surface layer, leading to improved evolution of the predicted ice extent (particularly correcting the late ice recovery issue in the previous CAPS). The improved sea ice thermodynamics in CICE have noticeable influences on the predicted ice thickness. The updated CAPS can better predict the evolution of Arctic sea ice during the melting season compared with its predecessor, though the prediction still has some biases at the regional scale. We further show that the updated CAPS can remain skillful beyond the melting season, which may have a potential value for stakeholders to make decisions for socioeconomic activities in the Arctic. Text Arctic Sea ice Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic Geoscientific Model Development 15 3 1155 1176
institution Open Polar
collection Copernicus Publications: E-Journals
op_collection_id ftcopernicus
language English
description The improved and updated Coupled Arctic Prediction System (CAPS) is evaluated using a set of Pan-Arctic prediction experiments for the year 2018. CAPS is built on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), the Community Ice CodE (CICE), and a data assimilation based on the local error subspace transform Kalman filter. We analyze physical processes linking improved and changed physical parameterizations in WRF, ROMS, and CICE to changes in the simulated Arctic sea ice state. Our results show that the improved convection and boundary layer schemes in WRF result in an improved simulation of downward radiative fluxes and near-surface air temperature, which influences the predicted ice thickness. The changed tracer advection and vertical mixing schemes in ROMS reduce the bias in sea surface temperature and change ocean temperature and salinity structure in the surface layer, leading to improved evolution of the predicted ice extent (particularly correcting the late ice recovery issue in the previous CAPS). The improved sea ice thermodynamics in CICE have noticeable influences on the predicted ice thickness. The updated CAPS can better predict the evolution of Arctic sea ice during the melting season compared with its predecessor, though the prediction still has some biases at the regional scale. We further show that the updated CAPS can remain skillful beyond the melting season, which may have a potential value for stakeholders to make decisions for socioeconomic activities in the Arctic.
format Text
author Yang, Chao-Yuan
Liu, Jiping
Chen, Dake
spellingShingle Yang, Chao-Yuan
Liu, Jiping
Chen, Dake
An improved regional coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice simulation and prediction: a case study for 2018
author_facet Yang, Chao-Yuan
Liu, Jiping
Chen, Dake
author_sort Yang, Chao-Yuan
title An improved regional coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice simulation and prediction: a case study for 2018
title_short An improved regional coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice simulation and prediction: a case study for 2018
title_full An improved regional coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice simulation and prediction: a case study for 2018
title_fullStr An improved regional coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice simulation and prediction: a case study for 2018
title_full_unstemmed An improved regional coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice simulation and prediction: a case study for 2018
title_sort improved regional coupled modeling system for arctic sea ice simulation and prediction: a case study for 2018
publishDate 2022
url https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1155/2022/
geographic Arctic
geographic_facet Arctic
genre Arctic
Sea ice
genre_facet Arctic
Sea ice
op_source eISSN: 1991-9603
op_relation doi:10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1155/2022/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022
container_title Geoscientific Model Development
container_volume 15
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