Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3
A substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual timescales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all sea ice properties, its volume, which is a product of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most responsive parameter to climate chang...
Published in: | Geoscientific Model Development |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/4283/2021/ |
id |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:gmd90086 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:gmd90086 2023-05-15T14:44:29+02:00 Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 Tian, Tian Yang, Shuting Karami, Mehdi Pasha Massonnet, François Kruschke, Tim Koenigk, Torben 2021-07-08 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/4283/2021/ eng eng doi:10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/4283/2021/ eISSN: 1991-9603 Text 2021 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 2021-07-12T16:22:14Z A substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual timescales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all sea ice properties, its volume, which is a product of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most responsive parameter to climate change. However, the majority of climate prediction systems are only assimilating the observed SIC due to lack of long-term reliable global observation of SIT. In this study, the EC-Earth3 Climate Prediction System with anomaly initialization to ocean, SIC and SIT states is developed. In order to evaluate the regional benefits of specific initialized variables, three sets of retrospective ensemble prediction experiments are performed with different initialization strategies: ocean only; ocean plus SIC; and ocean plus SIC and SIT initialization. In the Atlantic Arctic, the Greenland–Iceland–Norway (GIN) and Barents seas are the two most skilful regions in SIC prediction for up to 5–6 lead years with ocean initialization; there are re-emerging skills for SIC in the Barents and Kara seas in lead years 7–9 coinciding with improved skills of sea surface temperature (SST), reflecting the impact of SIC initialization on ocean–atmosphere interactions for interannual-to-decadal timescales. For the year 2–9 average, the region with significant skill for SIT is confined to the central Arctic Ocean, covered by multi-year sea ice (CAO-MYI). Winter preconditioning with SIT initialization increases the skill for September SIC in the eastern Arctic (e.g. Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas) and in turn improve the skill of air surface temperature locally and further expanded over land. SIT initialization outperforms the other initialization methods in improving SIT prediction in the Pacific Arctic (e.g. East Siberian and Beaufort seas) in the first few lead years. Our results suggest that as the climate warming continues and the central Arctic Ocean might become seasonal ice free in the future, the controlling mechanism for decadal predictability may thus shift from sea ice volume to ocean-driven processes. Text Arctic Arctic Ocean Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Climate change Greenland Iceland Kara-Laptev laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Norway Pacific Geoscientific Model Development 14 7 4283 4305 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
A substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual timescales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all sea ice properties, its volume, which is a product of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most responsive parameter to climate change. However, the majority of climate prediction systems are only assimilating the observed SIC due to lack of long-term reliable global observation of SIT. In this study, the EC-Earth3 Climate Prediction System with anomaly initialization to ocean, SIC and SIT states is developed. In order to evaluate the regional benefits of specific initialized variables, three sets of retrospective ensemble prediction experiments are performed with different initialization strategies: ocean only; ocean plus SIC; and ocean plus SIC and SIT initialization. In the Atlantic Arctic, the Greenland–Iceland–Norway (GIN) and Barents seas are the two most skilful regions in SIC prediction for up to 5–6 lead years with ocean initialization; there are re-emerging skills for SIC in the Barents and Kara seas in lead years 7–9 coinciding with improved skills of sea surface temperature (SST), reflecting the impact of SIC initialization on ocean–atmosphere interactions for interannual-to-decadal timescales. For the year 2–9 average, the region with significant skill for SIT is confined to the central Arctic Ocean, covered by multi-year sea ice (CAO-MYI). Winter preconditioning with SIT initialization increases the skill for September SIC in the eastern Arctic (e.g. Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas) and in turn improve the skill of air surface temperature locally and further expanded over land. SIT initialization outperforms the other initialization methods in improving SIT prediction in the Pacific Arctic (e.g. East Siberian and Beaufort seas) in the first few lead years. Our results suggest that as the climate warming continues and the central Arctic Ocean might become seasonal ice free in the future, the controlling mechanism for decadal predictability may thus shift from sea ice volume to ocean-driven processes. |
format |
Text |
author |
Tian, Tian Yang, Shuting Karami, Mehdi Pasha Massonnet, François Kruschke, Tim Koenigk, Torben |
spellingShingle |
Tian, Tian Yang, Shuting Karami, Mehdi Pasha Massonnet, François Kruschke, Tim Koenigk, Torben Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
author_facet |
Tian, Tian Yang, Shuting Karami, Mehdi Pasha Massonnet, François Kruschke, Tim Koenigk, Torben |
author_sort |
Tian, Tian |
title |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_short |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_full |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_fullStr |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_sort |
benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the arctic in ec-earth3 |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/4283/2021/ |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Norway Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Norway Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Climate change Greenland Iceland Kara-Laptev laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Climate change Greenland Iceland Kara-Laptev laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
eISSN: 1991-9603 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/4283/2021/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
4283 |
op_container_end_page |
4305 |
_version_ |
1766315975740751872 |