Assessing the performance of climate change simulation results from BESM-OA2.5 compared with a CMIP5 model ensemble
The main features of climate change patterns, as simulated by the coupled ocean–atmosphere version 2.5 of the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM), are compared with those of 25 other CMIP5 models, focusing on temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and radiative feedbacks. The climate s...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:gmd70998 2023-05-15T13:55:28+02:00 Assessing the performance of climate change simulation results from BESM-OA2.5 compared with a CMIP5 model ensemble Capistrano, Vinicius Buscioli Nobre, Paulo Veiga, Sandro F. Tedeschi, Renata Silva, Josiane Bottino, Marcus Silva Jr., Manoel Baptista Menezes Neto, Otacílio Leandro Figueroa, Silvio Nilo Bonatti, José Paulo Kubota, Paulo Yoshio Fernandez, Julio Pablo Reyes Giarolla, Emanuel Vial, Jessica Nobre, Carlos A. 2020-05-14 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2277-2020 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/2277/2020/ eng eng doi:10.5194/gmd-13-2277-2020 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/2277/2020/ eISSN: 1991-9603 Text 2020 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2277-2020 2020-07-20T16:22:10Z The main features of climate change patterns, as simulated by the coupled ocean–atmosphere version 2.5 of the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM), are compared with those of 25 other CMIP5 models, focusing on temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and radiative feedbacks. The climate sensitivity to quadrupling the atmospheric CO 2 concentration was investigated via two methods: linear regression ( Gregory et al. , 2004 ) and radiative kernels ( Soden and Held , 2006 Soden et al. , 2008 ) . Radiative kernels from both the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) were used to decompose the climate feedback responses of the CMIP5 models and BESM into different processes. By applying the linear regression method for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimation, we obtained a BESM value close to the ensemble mean value. This study reveals that the BESM simulations yield zonally average feedbacks, as estimated from radiative kernels, that lie within the ensemble standard deviation. Exceptions were found in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and over the ocean near Antarctica, where BESM showed values for lapse rate, humidity feedback, and albedo that were marginally outside the standard deviation of the values from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. For those areas, BESM also featured a strong positive cloud feedback that appeared as an outlier compared with all analyzed models. However, BESM showed physically consistent changes in the temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation patterns relative to the CMIP5 ensemble mean. Text Antarc* Antarctica Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Geoscientific Model Development 13 5 2277 2296 |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
description |
The main features of climate change patterns, as simulated by the coupled ocean–atmosphere version 2.5 of the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM), are compared with those of 25 other CMIP5 models, focusing on temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and radiative feedbacks. The climate sensitivity to quadrupling the atmospheric CO 2 concentration was investigated via two methods: linear regression ( Gregory et al. , 2004 ) and radiative kernels ( Soden and Held , 2006 Soden et al. , 2008 ) . Radiative kernels from both the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) were used to decompose the climate feedback responses of the CMIP5 models and BESM into different processes. By applying the linear regression method for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimation, we obtained a BESM value close to the ensemble mean value. This study reveals that the BESM simulations yield zonally average feedbacks, as estimated from radiative kernels, that lie within the ensemble standard deviation. Exceptions were found in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and over the ocean near Antarctica, where BESM showed values for lapse rate, humidity feedback, and albedo that were marginally outside the standard deviation of the values from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. For those areas, BESM also featured a strong positive cloud feedback that appeared as an outlier compared with all analyzed models. However, BESM showed physically consistent changes in the temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation patterns relative to the CMIP5 ensemble mean. |
format |
Text |
author |
Capistrano, Vinicius Buscioli Nobre, Paulo Veiga, Sandro F. Tedeschi, Renata Silva, Josiane Bottino, Marcus Silva Jr., Manoel Baptista Menezes Neto, Otacílio Leandro Figueroa, Silvio Nilo Bonatti, José Paulo Kubota, Paulo Yoshio Fernandez, Julio Pablo Reyes Giarolla, Emanuel Vial, Jessica Nobre, Carlos A. |
spellingShingle |
Capistrano, Vinicius Buscioli Nobre, Paulo Veiga, Sandro F. Tedeschi, Renata Silva, Josiane Bottino, Marcus Silva Jr., Manoel Baptista Menezes Neto, Otacílio Leandro Figueroa, Silvio Nilo Bonatti, José Paulo Kubota, Paulo Yoshio Fernandez, Julio Pablo Reyes Giarolla, Emanuel Vial, Jessica Nobre, Carlos A. Assessing the performance of climate change simulation results from BESM-OA2.5 compared with a CMIP5 model ensemble |
author_facet |
Capistrano, Vinicius Buscioli Nobre, Paulo Veiga, Sandro F. Tedeschi, Renata Silva, Josiane Bottino, Marcus Silva Jr., Manoel Baptista Menezes Neto, Otacílio Leandro Figueroa, Silvio Nilo Bonatti, José Paulo Kubota, Paulo Yoshio Fernandez, Julio Pablo Reyes Giarolla, Emanuel Vial, Jessica Nobre, Carlos A. |
author_sort |
Capistrano, Vinicius Buscioli |
title |
Assessing the performance of climate change simulation results from BESM-OA2.5 compared with a CMIP5 model ensemble |
title_short |
Assessing the performance of climate change simulation results from BESM-OA2.5 compared with a CMIP5 model ensemble |
title_full |
Assessing the performance of climate change simulation results from BESM-OA2.5 compared with a CMIP5 model ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Assessing the performance of climate change simulation results from BESM-OA2.5 compared with a CMIP5 model ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing the performance of climate change simulation results from BESM-OA2.5 compared with a CMIP5 model ensemble |
title_sort |
assessing the performance of climate change simulation results from besm-oa2.5 compared with a cmip5 model ensemble |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2277-2020 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/2277/2020/ |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica |
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eISSN: 1991-9603 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/gmd-13-2277-2020 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/2277/2020/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2277-2020 |
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Geoscientific Model Development |
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13 |
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5 |
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2277 |
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2296 |
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1766262089780822016 |