Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model
This paper presents a system to perform large-ensemble climate stochastic forecasts. The system is based on random analogue sampling of sea-level pressure data from the NCEP reanalysis. It is tested to forecast a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the daily average temperature in five Europe...
Published in: | Geoscientific Model Development |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Other/Unknown Material |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/12/723/2019/ |
id |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:gmd70769 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:gmd70769 2023-05-15T17:31:47+02:00 Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model Yiou, Pascal Déandréis, Céline 2019-02-19 info:eu-repo/semantics/application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/12/723/2019/ eng eng info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/338965 doi:10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/12/723/2019/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess eISSN: 1991-9603 info:eu-repo/semantics/Text 2019 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019 2020-07-20T16:22:55Z This paper presents a system to perform large-ensemble climate stochastic forecasts. The system is based on random analogue sampling of sea-level pressure data from the NCEP reanalysis. It is tested to forecast a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the daily average temperature in five European stations. We simulated 100-member ensembles of averages over lead times from 5 days to 80 days in a hindcast mode, i.e., from a meteorological to a seasonal forecast. We tested the hindcast simulations with the usual forecast skill scores (CRPS or correlation) against persistence and climatology. We find significantly positive skill scores for all timescales. Although this model cannot outperform numerical weather prediction, it presents an interesting benchmark that could complement climatology or persistence forecast. Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Geoscientific Model Development 12 2 723 734 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
This paper presents a system to perform large-ensemble climate stochastic forecasts. The system is based on random analogue sampling of sea-level pressure data from the NCEP reanalysis. It is tested to forecast a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the daily average temperature in five European stations. We simulated 100-member ensembles of averages over lead times from 5 days to 80 days in a hindcast mode, i.e., from a meteorological to a seasonal forecast. We tested the hindcast simulations with the usual forecast skill scores (CRPS or correlation) against persistence and climatology. We find significantly positive skill scores for all timescales. Although this model cannot outperform numerical weather prediction, it presents an interesting benchmark that could complement climatology or persistence forecast. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Yiou, Pascal Déandréis, Céline |
spellingShingle |
Yiou, Pascal Déandréis, Céline Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model |
author_facet |
Yiou, Pascal Déandréis, Céline |
author_sort |
Yiou, Pascal |
title |
Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model |
title_short |
Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model |
title_full |
Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model |
title_fullStr |
Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model |
title_sort |
stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/12/723/2019/ |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
eISSN: 1991-9603 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/338965 doi:10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/12/723/2019/ |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
723 |
op_container_end_page |
734 |
_version_ |
1766129553648910336 |