Regional climate change projections for the Barents region
Regional climate models can provide estimates for quantities that are difficult to study in empirical studies, such as cloud cover, wind, sea-ice or dependencies between variables. In this study, the regional climate model COSMO-CLM was used to simulate local climate conditions over the Barents regi...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:esdd53432 2023-05-15T14:58:41+02:00 Regional climate change projections for the Barents region Dobler, Andreas Haugen, Jan Erik Benestad, Rasmus Emil 2018-09-26 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-27 https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2016-27/ eng eng doi:10.5194/esd-2016-27 https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2016-27/ eISSN: 2190-4987 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-27 2020-07-20T16:24:03Z Regional climate models can provide estimates for quantities that are difficult to study in empirical studies, such as cloud cover, wind, sea-ice or dependencies between variables. In this study, the regional climate model COSMO-CLM was used to simulate local climate conditions over the Barents region and provide projections for the three emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results indicate that the most pronounced local warming can be expected in winter in the high Arctic near the present sea-ice border. The changes reach up to 20K, resulting in future temperatures close to melting. Similar spatial patterns are seen for changes in precipitation and wind in all scenarios, but with different amplitudes. Precipitation sensitivities, however, show the highest values along the west coast of Norway and in the Arctic during summer. For clouds, the projections show a decrease in winter mean cloud cover over sea and an increase over land, dominated by changes in low layer clouds. Over the Barents sea, convective cloud fraction is projected to increase, together with an increases in convective and total precipitation. In contrast to the COSMO-CLM and two other regional climate models taken into account, the ensemble mean of the driving global models shows an increasing trend in total cloud cover over the Barents sea. An analysis of the opposing trends reveals that there is an added value in the regional climate model projections for the Barents region. Text Arctic barents region Barents Sea Climate change Sea ice Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic Barents Sea Norway |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
description |
Regional climate models can provide estimates for quantities that are difficult to study in empirical studies, such as cloud cover, wind, sea-ice or dependencies between variables. In this study, the regional climate model COSMO-CLM was used to simulate local climate conditions over the Barents region and provide projections for the three emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results indicate that the most pronounced local warming can be expected in winter in the high Arctic near the present sea-ice border. The changes reach up to 20K, resulting in future temperatures close to melting. Similar spatial patterns are seen for changes in precipitation and wind in all scenarios, but with different amplitudes. Precipitation sensitivities, however, show the highest values along the west coast of Norway and in the Arctic during summer. For clouds, the projections show a decrease in winter mean cloud cover over sea and an increase over land, dominated by changes in low layer clouds. Over the Barents sea, convective cloud fraction is projected to increase, together with an increases in convective and total precipitation. In contrast to the COSMO-CLM and two other regional climate models taken into account, the ensemble mean of the driving global models shows an increasing trend in total cloud cover over the Barents sea. An analysis of the opposing trends reveals that there is an added value in the regional climate model projections for the Barents region. |
format |
Text |
author |
Dobler, Andreas Haugen, Jan Erik Benestad, Rasmus Emil |
spellingShingle |
Dobler, Andreas Haugen, Jan Erik Benestad, Rasmus Emil Regional climate change projections for the Barents region |
author_facet |
Dobler, Andreas Haugen, Jan Erik Benestad, Rasmus Emil |
author_sort |
Dobler, Andreas |
title |
Regional climate change projections for the Barents region |
title_short |
Regional climate change projections for the Barents region |
title_full |
Regional climate change projections for the Barents region |
title_fullStr |
Regional climate change projections for the Barents region |
title_full_unstemmed |
Regional climate change projections for the Barents region |
title_sort |
regional climate change projections for the barents region |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-27 https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2016-27/ |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea Norway |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Norway |
genre |
Arctic barents region Barents Sea Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic barents region Barents Sea Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
eISSN: 2190-4987 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/esd-2016-27 https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2016-27/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-27 |
_version_ |
1766330810068107264 |