Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100

The Baltic Sea region is very sensitive to climate change; it is a region with spatially varying climate and diverse ecosystems, but it is also under pressure due to a high population in large parts of the area. Climate change impacts could easily exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors such as bio...

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Published in:Earth System Dynamics
Main Authors: Christensen, Ole Bøssing, Kjellström, Erik, Dieterich, Christian, Gröger, Matthias, Meier, Hans Eberhard Markus
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 2022
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/133/2022/
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spelling ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:esd95933 2023-05-15T18:18:37+02:00 Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100 Christensen, Ole Bøssing Kjellström, Erik Dieterich, Christian Gröger, Matthias Meier, Hans Eberhard Markus 2022-01-24 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/133/2022/ eng eng doi:10.5194/esd-13-133-2022 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/133/2022/ eISSN: 2190-4987 Text 2022 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022 2022-01-31T17:22:16Z The Baltic Sea region is very sensitive to climate change; it is a region with spatially varying climate and diverse ecosystems, but it is also under pressure due to a high population in large parts of the area. Climate change impacts could easily exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors such as biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea considerably. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. In this overview paper, we will concentrate on a presentation of recent climate projections from 12.5 km horizontal resolution atmosphere-only regional climate models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment – European domain (EURO-CORDEX). Comparison will also be done with corresponding prior results as well as with coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models. The recent regional climate model projections strengthen the conclusions from previous assessments. This includes a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the southern half during summer. Consequently, the new results lend more credibility to estimates of uncertainties and robust features of future climate change. Furthermore, the larger number of scenarios gives opportunities to better address impacts of mitigation measures. In simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean model, the climate change signal is locally modified relative to the corresponding stand-alone atmosphere regional climate model. Differences are largest in areas where the coupled system arrives at different sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions. Text Sea ice Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Earth System Dynamics 13 1 133 157
institution Open Polar
collection Copernicus Publications: E-Journals
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language English
description The Baltic Sea region is very sensitive to climate change; it is a region with spatially varying climate and diverse ecosystems, but it is also under pressure due to a high population in large parts of the area. Climate change impacts could easily exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors such as biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea considerably. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. In this overview paper, we will concentrate on a presentation of recent climate projections from 12.5 km horizontal resolution atmosphere-only regional climate models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment – European domain (EURO-CORDEX). Comparison will also be done with corresponding prior results as well as with coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models. The recent regional climate model projections strengthen the conclusions from previous assessments. This includes a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the southern half during summer. Consequently, the new results lend more credibility to estimates of uncertainties and robust features of future climate change. Furthermore, the larger number of scenarios gives opportunities to better address impacts of mitigation measures. In simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean model, the climate change signal is locally modified relative to the corresponding stand-alone atmosphere regional climate model. Differences are largest in areas where the coupled system arrives at different sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions.
format Text
author Christensen, Ole Bøssing
Kjellström, Erik
Dieterich, Christian
Gröger, Matthias
Meier, Hans Eberhard Markus
spellingShingle Christensen, Ole Bøssing
Kjellström, Erik
Dieterich, Christian
Gröger, Matthias
Meier, Hans Eberhard Markus
Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100
author_facet Christensen, Ole Bøssing
Kjellström, Erik
Dieterich, Christian
Gröger, Matthias
Meier, Hans Eberhard Markus
author_sort Christensen, Ole Bøssing
title Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100
title_short Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100
title_full Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100
title_fullStr Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100
title_full_unstemmed Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100
title_sort atmospheric regional climate projections for the baltic sea region until 2100
publishDate 2022
url https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/133/2022/
genre Sea ice
genre_facet Sea ice
op_source eISSN: 2190-4987
op_relation doi:10.5194/esd-13-133-2022
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/133/2022/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022
container_title Earth System Dynamics
container_volume 13
container_issue 1
container_start_page 133
op_container_end_page 157
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